It may not officially be summer, but that doesn’t change the fact it might as well be. Summer weather will continue across Texas over the next seven days. We’ll have isolated to scattered storms in the western third of Texas daily through the weekend during the afternoon and evening hours. Stronger storms may produce damaging winds, hail, lightning, blowing dust, and locally heavy rainfall (at least, we hope they will. The lakes need it!). Otherwise, it will be seasonably hot, with high temperatures in the 90s and 100s.
Tropical System in the Western Gulf of Mexico Next Week
Next week’s weather will turn toward the active for the southeastern third of Texas. A tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, down in the Bay of Campeche, will probably spin up into a tropical depression or tropical storm next week. That system has a high potential of moving west/northwest into mainland Mexico. While the exact track and strength must be determined after the system forms, landfall will likely be several hundred miles south of the Texas/Mexico border. Regardless of the system’s eventual intensity and track, we anticipate some impacts on Texas.
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Strong rip currents, high tides, and some coastal flooding will be possible along the entire Texas Gulf Coast beginning Sunday and continuing through next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also become more likely along the Texas Gulf Coast beginning early next week and continuing for several days.
Regardless of track/strength, it is going to rain.
Thanks to days of strong on-shore flow, we will see an extraordinary surge of tropical moisture pushed into the southeastern half of Texas next week. All of that moisture will result in highly efficient rainfall production. Heavy rainfall from multiple rounds of precipitation will likely result in a flooding threat for the entire Texas Gulf Coast by Tuesday and Wednesday. Depending on trends, we may see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms spread inland into the Rio Grande Valley, Rio Grande Plains, Deep South Texas, Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, and Golden Triangle.
Rain chances may eventually spread west and north as we continue past Wednesday. Still, much will depend on the track and organization of whatever tropical system we are dealing with next week. The most impacts from rain, gusty winds, and rough surf will be along the Texas Gulf Coast, though some inland hydrometeorological issues (heavy rain) may eventually exist.
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