The weather forecast for the next two days shows lower confidence but indicates the possibility of significant weather events across parts of Texas. Starting this evening, there is a low chance (around 20 percent) of isolated thunderstorms east of the dryline in Northwest Texas, Big Country, western Texoma, and western North Texas. This suggests a reasonable possibility that the atmosphere remains capped (with a lid on it), meaning we might not see storms this afternoon or most of the evening.
However, the atmosphere is primed for severe weather. If any storms develop, they have a high likelihood of becoming severe, with risks including damaging hail, strong winds, and possibly even a tornado threat. This risk is greater north of the Red River in Oklahoma, where the cap is weaker, so we’ll need to monitor the situation closely.
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Wednesday Morning
A simulated weather radar from the high resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model for this afternoon, tonight, through Wednesday, and into Thursday morning in Texas showing multiple chances for thunderstorms across the northern third to half of Texas. Even more rain is expected on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
Regardless of tonight’s thunderstorm chances, we expect a round of scattered storms along a slow-moving cool front early Wednesday morning in parts of Texoma and North Texas, potentially affecting the D/FW Metroplex. These storms are likely to occur between 3 AM and 9 AM. The more intense storms may produce large hail and localized damaging wind gusts, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. This means we might experience some turbulent storms during the late night and early morning hours.
Wednesday Afternoon
As we move through Wednesday, we could see a few storms in Northeast Texas during the afternoon and early evening, following a severe weather outbreak across Arkansas and areas to the northeast. Any storms that develop in Texas tomorrow afternoon could produce damaging hail, strong winds, and the possibility of a tornado. However, low-level wind shear is expected to be weaker than this evening, which may lower the tornado threat.
Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning
Late Wednesday into Thursday morning, another upper-level system with increased lift will move over North Texas, Texoma, Northwest Texas, and the Big Country. We anticipate scattered severe storms during the early morning hours on Thursday. The strongest storms could produce very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts, but the tornado threat is expected to be low, although not zero. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and provide more specific updates as we move past tonight and tomorrow morning.
Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
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Looking ahead, more storms are likely to occur on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday across the northern two-thirds of Texas due to multiple upper-level storm systems moving through the region. Some of these storms may be severe, with risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, as we approach Thursday, and especially Friday and Saturday, the risk of flooding will increase across the northeastern third of Texas, with some locations potentially receiving event-total rainfall exceeding six to eight inches. Notably, this event is expected to remain north of South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, so there should be no new flooding in those areas that have already been affected.