While a direct landfall isn’t expected as the storm instead passes the island chain to the south, the initial impacts of potentially damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall and dangerous surf from the storm’s outer bands will reach the state’s eastern islands by the end of the day.
HILO, Hawaii — Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Hawaii‘s Big Island as Tropical Storm Hone swirls closer to the island chain on Saturday. And while a direct landfall isn’t expected as the storm instead passes the island chain to the south, the initial impacts of potentially damaging wind gusts, torrential rainfall and dangerous surf from the storm’s outer bands will reach the state’s eastern islands by the end of the day.
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm force winds of 39-74 mph are expected within the next 36 hours.
HONE TRACKER: FORECAST CONE, SATELLITE IMAGERY, SPAGHETTI MODELS AND MORE
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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Hone?
The National Hurricane Center says Hone’s peak wind speeds are at 60 mph as of late Friday night, Hawaiian time, with the center of the storm sitting just over 300 miles east-southeast of Hilo.
Its current forecast track will have the center of Hone pass near or south of the Big Island from Saturday night into early Sunday. Some gradual strengthening is still expected at least over the next two days, with Hone likely to become a hurricane on Sunday and Monday as it spins southwest of the Big Island.
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The center of the tropical storm is expected to remain far enough south of the islands to prevent a direct landfall, but the storm will pass close enough to bring heavy rain and strong winds to many of the islands, especially on the mountain downslope areas.
What are the expected wind impacts for Hone?
Strong and gusty winds are forecast to arrive on the Big Island Saturday evening, with widespread gusts of 50 mph likely late Saturday into early Sunday, according to the National Weather Service. The strongest gusts are expected along the South Point/Ka Lae area, and along the downslopes of the island’s vast mountains.
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Pressure gradients will tighten across the rest of the island chain as Hone continues its trek west through the weekend, with winds of 25-35 mph gusting as high as 50 mph likely across Kauai, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, Niihau and Oahu into Monday morning. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for those islands.
What are the expected rain impacts with Hone?
Even without a direct landfall, Hone will bring widespread heavy rainfall into Hawaii, where the moist, tropically-infused winds will slam into the windward side of the mountains along the islands, squeezing out torrential downpours.
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As much as 5-10 inches of rain is forecast along the windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with isolated areas receiving even higher amounts. Meanwhile, embedded showers and thunderstorms from Hone’s rainbands will bring quick accumulations and potential for localized flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Big Island starting Saturday afternoon.
For the rest of the islands, about 2-4 inches of rain is expected on the windward sides with showers and thunderstorms spreading east to west along the chain Sunday into early next week.
Rainfall totals are expected to vary greatly between the windward and leewards sides of the Hawaiian Islands due to Tropical Storm Hone. FOX Weather Meteorologist Steve Bender explains how Hawaii’s mountains have a super-sized impact on where and how much rain falls.
In addition, life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the Hawaiian beaches through the weekend.
Wind and rain will decrease from east to west at the start of next week as Hone moves away and typical trade winds return, but forecasters will be keeping an eye on potentially renewed heavy rainfall later in the week as moisture from Hurricane Gilma moves closer.
Dry, gusty winds ahead of Hone ramp up fire threat
While the windward sides of the islands await the heavy rains from Hone, the rain-shadowed leeward sides face dangerous wildfire conditions Saturday. Drier air is pushing into Hawaii ahead of Hone’s arrival, and the combination of a dry air mass and increasing downslope winds ahead of Hone has prompted Fire Weather Warnings for the leeward of the islands through Saturday afternoon.
While this atmospheric set up is nowhere near as dire as what triggered the deadly wildfires in Maui in 2023 as a much stronger Hurricane Dora passed to the south, fire weather conditions are present through the day. The threat will decrease later Saturday as rain and more humid air moves in from Hone.