Tropical Storm Hone is tracking toward Hawaii after becoming a named storm on Thursday. The system is expected to bring heavy rain to the Big Island over the weekend and into next week.
HONOLULU – Less than 12 hours after the formation of a tropical depression approximately 1,000 miles away from Hawaii, the system had organized enough to be declared Tropical Storm Hone – the first in the Central Pacific.
The forecast track indicates that the tropical storm is expected to head west or west-northwest across the Central Pacific, passing near or south of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend and into next week.
However, the exact distance of the system from the archipelago will determine the impacts related to rain, surf and wind.
Some forecast models suggest that the center of circulation will remain about 200 miles south of the Big Island, leading only to outer-fringe impacts.
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The uncertainty of the forecast and the potential for direct impacts are why forecasters always advise residents to be prepared for hurricane season and any potential effects.
In 2023, Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed more than 500 miles south of the island chain but contributed to conditions that were conducive to wind-driven wildfires.
The disaster ultimately resulted in the destruction of thousands of structures on Maui and at least two fatalities.
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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Hone?
Hone is less than 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hawaii and is moving on a westerly trajectory. On its current heading, the system is expected to remain in the open waters of the Central Pacific throughout its lifecycle.
According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the system could strengthen to near hurricane strength over the weekend while tracking near or south of Hawaii, with a direct landfall unlikely.
Direct landfalls in Hawaii are rare, occurring approximately once every decade or two.
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What are the expected impacts in Hawaii?
The National Weather Service office in Honolulu is tracking impacts with rainfall, surf and wind that will directly and indirectly impact the islands.
Forecasters expect 4-8 inches of rainfall on southern portions of the Big Island, with generally 2-4 inches of precipitation in mountainous regions on other small islands.
Additionally, increased swells are expected to reach the islands over the weekend and cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
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This is especially true on southern-facing beaches such as Wailea Beach in Maui, Polihale State Park in Kauai and Punaluʻu Black Sand Beach on the Big Island.
Increased gusty winds are expected to impact most, if not all, of the islands, but sustained winds are expected to remain below tropical-storm force (40-plus mph) in most communities.
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What else is being tracked in the tropics?
The Atlantic is as quiet as weather watchers will ever see the basin in August.
Forecasters expect no tropical cyclone formations through the end of the month due to influxes of dry air and water temperatures that have turned cooler than in past seasons.
It is a different story in the Eastern and Central Pacific, with at least two tropical cyclones and possible a third during the next week.
The strongest of the two current systems is Hurricane Gilma, which is about 2,000 miles away from Hawaii.
The Category 3 hurricane has had plenty of warm water and sufficient moisture, which has allowed the tropical cyclone to strengthen into a major hurricane.
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And the National Hurricane Center expects its strengthening is not over, with its forecast calling for it to reach at least Category 4 strength.
Similar to Tropical Storm Hone, Gilma is heading in a westerly or west-northwest heading, which is in the general direction of Hawaii.
Due to its slow forward speed of less than 10 mph, the storm system’s closest approach to Hawaii would likely not occur until around the Labor Day weekend.
The hurricane season in both the Central and Eastern Pacific runs through Nov. 30.