FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross says the development of Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico is going to happen quickly, likely by Wednesday of next week and will likely hit Florida. Oct. 5, 2024.
MIAMI — Tropical Depression Fourteen formed in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday, eventually eyeing Florida next week as a tropical storm or even possibly as a hurricane, with days of torrential rains and triggering a risk of flooding and gusty winds.
The forecast with TD14 has evolved quite a bit in the last 24 hours, showing greater potential to be a more significant storm.
“I don’t like the way this is developing at all, and it’s going to happen pretty quickly,” says FOX Weather Meteorologist Bryan Norcross. “It just means the odds are significantly higher (Saturday) than they were (Friday) that a memorable, impactful storm is going to impact Florida in the days ahead.”
What’s the forecast for Tropical Depression 14?
TD Fourteen is forecast to pick up speed early next week and turn to the east/northeast across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional strengthening is likely, according to the NHC. A tropical storm or hurricane is expected to cross over Florida in the middle of the week, bringing days of heavy rains. If the storm reaches tropical storm strength, it’ll take the name Milton.
“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have a significant storm offshore (of Florida on Wednesday),” Norcross said. “How significant is this? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Decent chance. And these models, they say hurricane. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category two, Category three. We can’t even rule that out.”
He added: “There is really no good news in any of these various computer forecasts, but here we are.”
“Everywhere on the peninsula of Florida, we’re looking for the potential of significant rainfall starting (Sunday) and then continuing into the week,” Norcross said.
How much rain is expected?
Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to be from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 5-8 inches of rainfall over the next week, with some areas nearing a foot of rain.
Because much of the rain will be spread out over several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated, but where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same region, issues could arise.
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The expected impacted region is farther south from where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as locations such as Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.
In addition to the rainfall, rough seas will lead to threats of increased rip currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.
FLORIDA ALLIGATOR FINDS BREAK IN RAINY WEATHER TO SUNBATHE ON A BEACH
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“The bottom line is we do have the potential for a significant, problematic, impactful storm coming toward Florida Tuesday, Wednesday-ish of next week,” Norcross said.
What’s to be expected with the rest of hurricane season?
The waters in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf remain plenty warm for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.
According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.
The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is Nov. 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses a direct threat to any landmasses over the next week.
There is also a new disturbance off the coast of Africa that is being tracked.