Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are keeping an eye on four areas swirling in the Atlantic Basin, including Invest 99L off the U.S. East Coast and Invest 90L off the Gulf Coast.
MIAMI — After monitoring four different disturbances for potential tropical development in the Atlantic basin, attention is now focusing on a tropical disturbance that has eyes on the southern Gulf of Mexico just as the hurricane season reaches its climatological peak on Sept. 10.
The disturbance has spent more than a week making the journey across the Atlantic as a tropical wave, clinging to a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms as it struggled to find conditions conducive for development.
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That remains the case as the disturbance currently sits near Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. But forecasts have the wave moving into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday where it could interact with a frontal boundary, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The system could pick up enough strength to become a tropical depression during the early to middle part of next week as it slides into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said. The agency has now given the disturbance a medium chance of development over the next week — the highest rating its had in several days.
Invest 90L: No longer a tropical threat, but still a flooding threat
Meanwhile, another disturbance that has been hanging around drenching the Gulf Coast for days is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression.
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The system, tagged as Invest 90L on Thursday, now has a 0% chance of development but remains on track to keep dumping several inches of rain along the Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi coasts. The system will likely lose its invest designation soon, but remain a thorn in the Gulf Coast’s side through the weekend, eventually spreading its rain across a wider swath of Florida.
Invest 99L: A budding storm, but not tropical
The low pressure center that developed off the East Coast and was dubbed Invest 99L by the NHC earlier this week is getting stronger, but is maintaining traditional storm characteristics instead of any subtropical dynamics.
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That will take the storm off the NHC’s plate, but the Canadian Maritimes will still have to deal with a storm that is set to bring strong winds and storm warnings.
The storm is staying well offshore of the U.S., but is expected to bring heavy surf and dangerous rip currents to the New England coast.
Tropical Wave in Atlantic has minimal chance to develop
The only other tropical area of interest is far out in the Atlantic, where the NHC is keeping an eye on an elongated trough of low pressure.
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Currently, the trough isn’t producing much of anything but there is a slim chance of slow development as the trough wanders into the central tropical Atlantic Ocean later next week.