Tornado Watch from Permian Basin to Edwards Plateau through 4 AM Tuesday

Tornado Watch from Permian Basin to Edwards Plateau through 4 AM Tuesday

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The threat of severe thunderstorms is increasing across southwestern Texas overnight. The peak of this severe weather threat is expected late tonight into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. A new tornado watch has been issued for the Permian Basin, Pecos Valley, southern Concho Valley, and northern Edwards Plateau until 4 AM Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue across the Permian Basin this evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are forecast farther southeast into the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau regions. It is here that scattered supercells are forecast to evolve by late evening and persist into the overnight. Moist low levels with strengthening flow fields will support supercells potentially capable of a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 50 miles south southeast of Junction TX.

The most intense storms overnight could produce hail up to the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts exceeding 70 MPH, and the possibility of a few tornadoes. The overall combination of instability and wind shear will be dangerously high in these regions, even during the night. 

A slight advantage is that this severe weather is occurring overnight, which may allow for some low-level stabilization, potentially keeping the tornado threat more isolated. However, if that stabilization does not occur, we might still face a serious tornado threat with the most intense storms. 

Simulated weather model radar overnight into Tuesday morning showing scattered severe storms moving northeast across the Permian Basin, southern Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, Pecos Valley, into the Hill Country.

Click the ?/image for a full simulated weather radar animation.

Storms are expected to increase in frequency near and after midnight near the Rio Grande and northern Mexico. These storms will move east-northeast at 30 to 40 MPH mph into the affected areas. After 3 AM Tuesday, storms will likely make their way into the Hill Country, and eventually Central Texas and South-Central Texas before sunrise. The most intense storms are expected to continue producing severe weather—very large hail, damaging winds, and a possible tornado risk—throughout the night.

We will closely monitor the situation and provide frequent updates on our social media channels. If tornado warnings are issued in Texas near populated areas, we will also provide live severe weather coverage on our blog and app.