Over the next three days, Texas will experience two significant weather systems that could lead to dangerous wildfire conditions, strong winds, blowing dust, and the potential for severe storms.
This afternoon, scattered severe storms may develop late in the day until about 11 PM, particularly in eastern North Texas and Northeast Texas. These storms have the possibility of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a brief tornado. The first storms are expected to form between 4PM and 6PM near Highway 75, stretching from Sherman to Dallas and east of Waco.
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As these storms move east into Northeast Texas this evening, they could intensify, bringing an increased risk of hail. Keep an eye out for very large hail as well! The chance of severe storms is likely to decrease in Northeast Texas after 11 PM.
Simulated weather model radar from 5 PM through 11 PM today showing scattered severe storms moving east across eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas.
On the other hand, very dangerous wildfire conditions are anticipated across the western half of Texas this afternoon. Gusty west winds will create areas of blowing dust and lower visibility. Any fires that start could spread rapidly, necessitating a considerable boost in resources to manage them.
Very high to extreme wildfire danger is forecast across the western half of Texas today, the western third of Texas on Thursday, and nearly all of Texas on Friday.
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Thursday is expected to be a quieter day with a reduced risk of weather hazards. However, Friday will bring high-impact weather across Texas with a strong storm system moving through the Plains. Wind gusts reaching 60 mph are expected in the Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and western North Texas, with strong winds affecting the entire state.
Friday will bring damaging winds to the western half of Texas with winds gusting over 60 MPH out out of the west/southwest. Strong winds are likely statewide – with blowing dust.
There may be widespread blowing dust and a noticeable dust storm in several areas. With relative humidity dropping below fifteen percent in much of the western three-quarters of Texas and no rain over the past week, the risk of wildfires will be extremely high, especially compared to earlier in the week.
Fortunately, this weekend looks much calmer for Texas, with low impacts anticipated; however, the wildfire danger will still be elevated, and any effects from Friday’s fires may linger into the weekend.