Texas Weather Update: More Storms Possible Tonight into Wednesday Morning

After a rough morning with damaging winds, hail, and flooding, the eastern half of Texas enjoyed a mostly calm afternoon. Across the western half of Texas, we’ve seen isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms erupt. The most intense storms have produced giant hail up to the size of a DVD or 5 inches in diameter. We’re starting to see a few thunderstorm clusters, or lines, develop. One cluster of storms is in western Oklahoma, south into Northwest Texas, West Texas, and the Permian Basin. A second cluster is in the Edwards Plateau in northern Mexico.

Both of these clusters of storms are beginning to move east/southeast. With time this evening, we may see these storm clusters accelerate east/southeastward. The most intense storms in these clusters may produce damaging straight-line winds over seventy miles per hour, large hail, and flooding rainfall. The tornado threat is low, but not zero. The southern cluster of storms could impact the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, South Texas, Coastal Bend, and the Rio Grande Valley this evening and tonight. The northern side of the thunderstorm cluster may make it into South-Central Texas and the Hill Country. Those storms should move off into the Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday morning.

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The forecast for our northern cluster of storms is more complex. The airmass across Northwest Texas, Big Country, Texoma, and North Texas has been significantly affected after this morning’s intense weather event. However, there has likely been enough recovery to anticipate another round of storms moving southeast tonight into Wednesday morning, as previously mentioned. The overall risk of severe weather is not as high as last evening or this morning, but there is still a possibility of stronger storms with localized damaging winds, hail, and flooding rainfall. Similar to this morning’s storms, we will need to closely monitor both thunderstorm clusters tonight for indications of a more extensive, intense damaging wind signature.

On Wednesday, we anticipate the possibility of isolated to scattered storms across the eastern half of Texas. However, barring any morning storms, we are hopeful for a less eventful day in the thunderstorm department. Looking ahead, Thursday afternoon into Friday is expected to be busy, with numerous thunderstorm opportunities, including the risk of severe storms and further excessive rainfall across the eastern two-thirds to seventy-five percent of Texas.

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