A warming trend will take us back into our first false-summer stretch of the spring. Extreme wildfire danger will exist across the western third of Texas on Thursday and Friday. Gusty winds may also bring pockets of blowing dust.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon through early evening in the Big Bend, Trans-Pecos, and southern Permian Basin. We might also see a storm or two late this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon in the eastern Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin. Any storms that develop could produce strong outflow winds and hail, but they are unlikely to persist long after sunset.
Thunderstorms are expected to become more likely from late Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon, with multiple rounds of storms capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. These storms may disrupt some of your outdoor plans this weekend, so it’s a good idea to have backup plans in place.
Scattered storms are anticipated late Friday afternoon into Friday night in Northwest Texas and the eastern Texas Panhandle, with isolated storms further south in the Big Country and Concho Valley. The strongest storms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts, while the tornado threat remains low.
On Saturday, we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. While it’s not guaranteed that it will rain at your location, we are anticipating higher rain chances north of Interstate 10 up to the Red River. One round of storms may occur in the morning and early afternoon, moving eastward, followed by a second round developing in the west during the late afternoon and evening, moving across the eastern half of Texas into Sunday morning. Some of these storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and even the possibility of a tornado. Forecasts indicate rainfall totals of two to three inches in Texoma and North Texas, while the Panhandle, West Texas, Big Country, Northwest Texas, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, and Northeast Texas may receive between half an inch to two inches. Localized flooding is possible.
Beneficial rain totals are expected across the northern half of Texas with our upcoming series of storm chances on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. A localized flooding risk is expected in Texoma and North Texas.
Rain chances are expected to decrease from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon as we transition to the next series of upper-level storm systems. Isolated afternoon and evening storms may develop in the western third of Texas on Monday and Tuesday next week. Given the time of year, it’s reasonable to expect that any storms will produce strong winds, lightning, and pose a risk of hail.