Texas Storm Watch: Severe Weather and Heavy Rain On The Way!

Texas Storm Watch: Severe Weather and Heavy Rain On The Way!

by

A very active week of weather is expected across Texas, with an active upper-level jet stream over the state. We will enjoy a fairly quiet Monday weather-wise, and Tuesday will feature much of the same across the eastern half of the state.

Extreme wildfire danger is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday across the western third of Texas.

Advertisements


Critical to extreme wildfire danger is expected on Tuesday across the western half of Texas. An isolated severe storm may occur east of the dryline in Northwest Texas and the Big Country late Tuesday afternoon. It’s a low-probability scenario, but if a storm fires, it will produce significant hail.

Conditional Threat of Severe Storms Tuesday Night

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning in Northwest Texas, Texoma, North Texas, Big Country, and the Concho Valley. A strong lid (cap) on the atmosphere may prevent storms from developing.

Going into late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, a slightly better chance of scattered storms may arise as upper-level lift increases. Like tomorrow afternoon, we’re not confident that storms will develop south of the Red River tomorrow night. However, if storms do develop, conditions will be favorable for significant severe storms with very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado risk. We will closely monitor trends and update the forecast accordingly, either by confirming that storms won’t be an issue tomorrow night or by increasing thunderstorm chances.

Wednesday through Saturday

Wednesday through Saturday will feature multiple rounds of thunderstorms across Texas, thanks to a stationary front and plenty of upper-level lift. Severe storms on Wednesday and Thursday will be most likely in Texoma, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. Large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all expected.

Not all storms will be intense, and it won’t be raining every minute of each day. Late week’s rain chances will spread to much of Texas, with the lowest chances in the Big Bend, South Texas, Rio Grande Plains, Rio Grande Valley, and Coastal Bend.

Advertisements


Beneficial rain is forecast across much of Texas this week, espucially Wednesday through Saturday. Several inches of rain will fall across Northeast Texas, leading to an increasing flood threat by Friday.

The heaviest rains, three to seven inches by Saturday, could bring a risk of flooding to Northeast Texas and the Ark-La-Tex by Thursday and Friday. Beneficial rains are expected across a large portion of the state with multiple rounds of rain. Depending on the track of an upper-level storm system on Saturday, we may even see snow mixing with rain across the Panhandle and West Texas.

Needless to say, it’s going to be an active week precipitation-wise!