An overperforming tornado outbreak damaged the eastern side of the Oklahoma City metro and several southern/eastern Oklahoma communities. Yesterday, several severe storms struck the Permian Basin and eastern New Mexico. This morning, showers are expected across Northwest Texas and Texoma.
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Severe thunderstorms will become increasingly probable after lunchtime today in the Big Country, Northwest Texas, western North Texas, and Texoma. It looks like another messy day with several storms going up at once and generally moving north/northeast. Some storms will become supercelluar with a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado threat.
We expect storms will continue developing through the evening hours and eventually make their way farther east to the north/northwestern sides of D/FW and perhaps the Ark-La-Tex. Southern Oklahoma will also be under the bullseye. We may see a respite in storm activity for several hours late this evening, but more storms may develop early Monday in northwest Texas and move northeast/east along the Red River. Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain may result in localized flooding.
Monday could be quite active with severe storms
Monday has the potential to be a busy severe weather day with ingredients favoring the threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rain as a dryline/cold front moves across the eastern half of Texas. A broken line of thunderstorms may be underway by lunchtime west of Interstate 35W/35 in Texoma, North Texas, and Central Texas.
Some storms within the line may be supercelluar, with all modes of severe weather possible. Along with individual storms, the line would move east/northeast across the D/FW Metroplex early in the afternoon and into eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, the Ark-La-Tex, and East Texas on Monday afternoon. Some storms will likely be producing severe weather.
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A line of storms will likely develop along a southward-moving cold front Monday evening from the Hill Country and Central Texas into the Brazos Valley and East Texas. Activity will move south/southeast Tuesday morning across the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, and Golden Triangle. Some storms will produce strong winds, heavy rain, small hail, and frequent lightning. If the timing forecast holds up, most of Texas will have low-impact weather for Tuesday afternoon and night – although gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures would be likely.
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