Multiple waves of thunderstorms will impact Texas over the next five days, with a hectic period of weather expected tonight through the first half of the weekend. That does not mean we’ll see storms every minute of every day.
Advertisements
A conditional threat of isolated, intense storms will exist late this afternoon through mid-evening across Northwest Texas, western North Texas, and into the Big Country and Concho Valley. A strong cap (lid) on the atmosphere will likely prevent thunderstorms from developing south of the Red River.
However, there is a 15 to 30 percent chance we might see at least one storm ‘breach’ the cap and develop. Atmospheric conditions will be favorable for severe weather, including baseball to softball-sized hail, damaging wind gusts, and the possibility of tornadoes – *IF* we see a storm develop. This is one of those low-confidence, high-impact scenarios. The most likely outcome is we will see no storms, or only one storm, this afternoon through mid-evening south of the Red River. If we see storms, they will likely be significant as they move east/northeast.
A cool front will move southeast into Texoma and North Texas late tonight into the early morning hours Wednesday. We may see a broken line of storms ignite early Wednesday morning as that front approaches Interstate 35. Some storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. While there is not complete confidence in the development of storms, it remains another possibility.
Wednesday’s Severe Weather Risk
Advertisements
Thursday’s Severe Weather Risk
Numerous storms are expected to occur from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday night across the northern 80 % of Texas. Severe storms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night in Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas – and in those same regions again on Thursday as a cool front stalls out and becomes a focal point for new thunderstorm development. Not all storms will be severe, but some will produce very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes. We’ll be able to narrow down more specific zones of higher-risk severe weather potential as we get closer to each round and observe how the previous round of storms behaved. We’re going to take one round of storms at a time.
Friday’s severe weather outlook
On Friday and Friday night, the threat of scattered severe storms will expand a bit farther west and south across the Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. Some storms may produce large hail, damaging winds, and heavier rainfall.
Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected with the storms this week, especially across Texoma, North Texas, and Northeast Texas. Three to seven inches of rain are possible in those regions, with flooding becoming an increasingly likely threat by Friday as soils saturate. By the time rains finally end late Saturday, we’re looking at one to two inches of rain across the Panhandle, West Texas, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and East Texas.
Saturday’s severe weather potential
Some storms on Saturday may be severe across the eastern third of Texas, though I suspect that will change somewhat as we experience three to four days of storms before then. If that wasn’t enough, we may see rain mix with or change over to wet snow across parts of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas on Saturday as colder air filters in from Colorado. It remains too soon to determine any accumulation potential, but warm ground temperatures would help mitigate some of that potential. We’ll address it as we get closer to the weekend.
Forecast rain totals across Texas through Saturday.
Rain chances will finally end on Sunday, with cooler weather filtering into Texas. Next week is looking far less active, with below-average temperatures and drier air masses filtering into the southern United States.
Advertisements