Beryl has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and is roughly two days away from making landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast. The Yucatan really did a number on the system’s organization. Maximum sustained winds are down to 60 MPH, and it is a shell of its former self. It will likely take much of today for Beryl to recover; which helps put a lid on the rate of intensification. However, we caution folks not to let their guard down.
While we do not anticipate a ‘Harvey’ situation where we go from a tropical storm to a category four hurricane in two days, Beryl will likely pack a punch. The current forecast indicates Beryl should regain hurricane intensity tomorrow or tomorrow night and make landfall around lunchtime Monday on the Middle Texas Coast.
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Hurricane watches are in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande (Texas/Mexico border) to San Luis Pass on the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. A Storm Surge Watch runs from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island on the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds’ anticipated occurrence, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today or tonight.
The eastward shift in yesterday’s forecast has mostly stabilized, with a landfall now expected somewhere along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast or the Coastal Plains. Even though the landfall has shifted east, the storm’s angle of approach (moving northwest) will still result in a storm surge threat to the Lower Texas Gulf Coast tomorrow and tomorrow night. As the center of circulation moves north of those latitudes, winds will shift off-shore, helping to push water away from the coast.
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Strong to locally damaging winds are anticipated near the landfall location of Beryl on Monday. The current forecast projects a category-one hurricane at landfall. The strongest winds will probably be located within stronger bands near the center of circulation. There will be a tornado threat with rain bands and individual cells moving onshore across the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, and Golden Triangle beginning Sunday afternoon/evening through Tuesday. The threat of fast-moving, spin-up tornadoes will likely expand northward to include the Brazos Valley and East Texas on Monday and Tuesday. It is important to note that while these spin-up tornadoes are typically brief and weak, they’re also quite difficult to provide advance warning for.
As Beryl moves inland, three to ten inches of rain are expected across the eastern third of Texas over the next several days. After landfall on Monday, the system will slowly turn north and eventually northeast, passing near Bryan/College Station on Tuesday afternoon and Texarkana to Marshall on Wednesday afternoon. Dry soils will absorb some of the initial rains, but we anticipate a flood threat to develop after soils saturate and runoff increases.
As the circulation of Beryl starts winding down on Tuesday into Wednesday, we’ll start to calm down – but it will continue raining near the circulation’s location as it moves northeast. It’ll depart Texas on Wednesday, with some chance of showers and storms continuing in its wake. A northerly wind shift will occur west of the system’s track, which may draw in some nicer temperatures.
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Full National Hurricane Center Advisory
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL…
…EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL IN TEXAS…
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.7N 91.9W
ABOUT 495 MI…795 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to San Luis Pass
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward
to High Island
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches
and warnings will likely be issued for portions of this area later
today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 91.9 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is expected later today and then north-northwestward
by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is
expected to approach the Texas coast by late Sunday into Monday
morning.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but
strengthening is expected to begin by Sunday, and Beryl is forecast
to become a hurricane before it reaches the Texas coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area
along the Gulf coast of northeastern Mexico and Texas by early
Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Sunday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Baffin Bay, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 ft
Matagorda Bay…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX…2-4 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
is likely to produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be locally considerable in nature.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are
expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the
U.S. shortly. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.