We remain primarily quiet in the thunderstorm department during dinner time in Texas. We had scattered thunderstorms moving northeast across parts of the Ark-La-Tex this afternoon. Otherwise, we’ve been monitoring thunderstorms north of the Red River up in Oklahoma. A few of those storms have produced damaging winds and hail. Our airmass south of the Red River remains ‘capped’ or without storms. We expect that will change after 10 PM as a cold front moves southeast into Texoma, North Texas, and the eastern Big Country.
Thunderstorms, or ‘unzip,’ will develop in a line from north to south late this evening. These storms will be on the leading edge of a cold front. Storms may struggle to organize, but we anticipate at least a few hours of more potent storm potential late tonight into Thursday’s early morning hours as storms move east/southeast across North Texas. These storms will move into the D/FW Metroplex around 1-3 AM. The stronger storms may be severe, with damaging winds and quarter-size hail. A tornado can’t be ruled out, but the overall tornado threat will be low.
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By 7 AM Thursday, showers and storms will extend from the northern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, into Northeast Texas and the Ark-La-Tex. We may also see spotty showers and storms ahead of the line across East Texas. The cold front will slowly move south Thursday morning, eventually bringing cooler, dry weather to the northern two-thirds of Texas Thursday evening. Spotty showers and storms may occur in the third quarter of Texas Thursday evening, though it likely won’t be widespread/complete washout.
Rain chances will return to northwestern parts of Texas on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms, capable of producing heavy rain, are expected. We need the rain! Those storm chances expand to the eastern two-thirds of Texas on Monday and Tuesday.