A not-so-hot front will increase the chance of thunderstorms in a few regions in Texas today and on Saturday. The ‘front’ itself won’t cool things off as much as the rain and resultant cloud cover. Otherwise, we’re looking at our typical summer heat continuing into mid-August.
Storms may east across the Panhandle this morning. Gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rain are possible. That activity should move east into Oklahoma. This afternoon, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, Concho Valley, and Brazos Valley.
The first storms may begin in the north and push south this evening. Some data suggests we may see storms make it into South-Central Texas. Locally heavy rain, gusty to locally damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning are probable. Another benefit of any rain is that temperatures fall into the 70s. Additional thunderstorms are likely in the Texas Panhandle tonight and on Saturday. Temperatures may be cooler across the northern third of Texas today, Saturday, and Sunday.
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Any rain chances we have over the next two days will shut off beginning Monday. Our upper-level high pressure, nicknamed the heat dome during summer, will retake control and sit its happy self right over Texas. Sinking air (subsidence) will make it difficult for any storms to develop. We may see some precipitation in Far West Texas in the Borderland around El Paso. That’ll be about it. High temperatures in the upper 90s to 108 degrees and warm overnight temperatures are expected for much of next week.
A tropical disturbance will move west toward the Bahamas over five days. That system will likely become a tropical ‘problem’ as it moves toward the Southeastern United States by next weekend. Should it become a problem as expected, it will be named Ernesto. Most longer-range weather model data suggests it will be an ‘Atlantic’ issue, passing near or remaining off the eastern United States seaboard. It will need to be tracked.
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