A prolonged stretch of wet weather is in store for nearly the entire southern U.S., with areas from New Mexico to the Carolinas bracing for numerous rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms over the next several days.
Nearly the entire southern U.S. is bracing for a prolonged stretch of wet weather that could set records in cities like New Orleans and Atlanta, thanks to a stalled-out cold front that will trigger numerous rounds of torrential rain and thunderstorms from parts of the Southwest through the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic.
The South is no stranger to afternoon thunderstorms during the summer. However, the upcoming stretch of precipitation will be notable even for them as cities brace for what could be the longest stretch of consecutive wet weather in decades.
Severe weather, flood threat kick off action on Thursday
The exclusive FOX Model Futuretrack shows a prolonged stretch of wet weather across the South, with numerous rounds of torrential rain and thunderstorms expected.
The FOX Forecast Center said the initial culprit for heavy rain will be the stalled-out cold front draped across the southern U.S. starting on Thursday.
That will serve as a focus for the potential for severe weather and flash flooding over portions of the mid-Atlantic, as well as the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.
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Nearly 5 million people in northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia have been placed in a Level 2 out of 5 threat on the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.
Cities like Virginia Beach and Norfolk in Virginia, as well as Raleigh in North Carolina, could see thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts and large hail.
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And heavy rains could trigger flooding problems.
“Thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall through today,” the National Weather Service office in Newport-Morehead City said. “Some storms could be capable of rainfall rates greater than 2 inches per hour, which could result in flash flooding.”
Flood Watches that cover areas of southern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.
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The FOX Forecast Center said it expects a minimal chance for tornadoes, although a quick spin-up is not out of the question.
Rinse, repeat pattern over next several days
But aside from the North Carolina severe weather threat, there’s also a risk of flash flooding across several states as the cold frontal boundary stretches across the South. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed parts of the mid-Atlantic, Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley in a Level 2 out of 4 risk of flooding on Thursday.
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The cold front will remain strewn across the region for days while the circulation around a persistent upper-level disturbance over the central U.S. continues to pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
That will trigger numerous rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, which could produce additional risks of flash flooding over the next several days. Widespread rainfall totals could reach 1-3 inches across the South through the weekend.
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With the rain continuing, several cities across the region could see some record-breaking wet weather.
New Orleans, for example, has recorded rain over the past two days, and rain is forecast for the next two weeks.
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If that occurs, it will tie their record for most consecutive days with rain at 16.
Atlanta, too, could set a record.
Rain is expected in Atlanta over the next two weeks, and if that is verified, it will break their record for most consecutive days with rain.
The current record is 14 days, set in July 1994, as well as July 1916.
Pensacola in Florida, and Birmingham in Alabama could also see records broken if rain is recorded every day for the next two weeks.