Scientists fear Iceland volcano could erupt again in weeks as magma continues to pool underground

GRINDAVIK, Iceland – Concerns are growing among scientists in Iceland that a volcano that erupted several times since the end of 2023 could erupt again in weeks, putting the seaside town of Grindavík on alert for potential impacts from lava flows.

The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said in a recent update that magma has been flowing into the Svartsengi reservoir beneath the Earth’s surface, and has reached the lower limit of magma that was lost during the latest eruption that began at the end of May.

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That lower limit was believed to be about 13 million cubic meters of magma, while the upper limit is about 19 million cubic meters.

“Assuming a similar volume of magma needs to be recharged to build up enough in the system to trigger the next event (dike and/or eruption), geodetic modeling indicates that there is a very high probability that this will occur within the next three weeks,” the IMO said.

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However, the IMO warns that if a higher volume change is required, then that will be achieved within the next three to four weeks.

The higher volume, 20 million cubic meters of magma, was reached prior to the eruption at the end of May.

Those predictions were based on the assumption that the rate of magma flowing into the reservoir remains consistent as of what was seen on Tuesday.

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Grindavík on alert for potential lava flows

The seaside town of Grindavík had been evacuated before the first eruption in December, but residents were allowed to return briefly to gather important belongings. But on several occasions those residents were told to flee the area due to a new eruption taking place.

The popular tourist destination Blue Lagoon has also been evacuated several times because of the eruption, forcing visitors to pack up and leave and head for safety.

Now Grindavík has been placed on alert once again, with the town being placed under a “Considerable” risk of a volcanic eruption in the IMO’s latest hazard map for volcanic unrest.

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Scientists say that recent data analysis of fissure openings from previous eruptions showed a systematic movement to the southwest.

“Considering this data and the considerable amount of fault movement within Grindavík since November 2023, the likelihood of lava extrusion in Zone 4 is now considered higher for future eruptions,” the IMO said.

The risk in Zone 4, which includes Grindavík, is considered to be higher for future eruptions because of the threat of fissure openings, lava flows and gas pollution.

“This change does not currently affect the overall hazard level in Zone 4, which remains considerable (orange),” the IMO said.

Iceland volcano erupted 5 times since December

In November 2023, Southwestern Iceland was placed on alert for the possibility of a volcanic eruption after tens of thousands of earthquakes shook Grindavík, and massive cracks began to open up on roads across the area.

The first eruption began in December, and several others were reported in the following months. The latest eruption, in May, became the most powerful eruption so far.

Lava shot more than 160 feet into the air and spread out in all directions, covering roads and coming into contact with the defense walls built around the town and important infrastructure to protect it from the advancing lava.