Rambunctious Texas Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening

Rambunctious Texas Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening

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Scattered thunderstorms will likely make for a rough day in the weather department across parts of Texas. Unlike yesterday where most storms held off until after dinner-time, we’ll get an earlier start by the early afternoon hours in North Texas. Initial thunderstorms may develop in western North Texas, and move east into the D/FW Metroplex by the late afternoon rush hour. Supercell storms are likely, with the strongest capable of producing softball size hail, damaging to hurricane-force wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

Scattered to several severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening in the eastern Concho Valley, eastern Big Country, Texoma, North Texas, Northeast Texas, Ark-La-Tex, East Texas, Southeast Texas, Brazos Valley, Central Texas, and Hill Country. Storms will likely first develop in northern portions of the risk area, and move south this evening.

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There may be multiple storms with an extremely unstable airmass in place (why do you think it feels like the Gulf of Mexico?). Storms will likely start moving southeast late this afternoon or evening, with storms either developing or moving into parts of the Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, Central Texas, Hill Country, Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and East Texas. If storms get going early enough this afternoon, we may be winding down by midnight.

Storm Expectations This Evening into early Friday

Otherwise, some storms may continue into the pre-dawn hours on Friday. After a few hours of semi-discrete supercells, storms will probably grow upscale into one or more clusters. Once we have storm clusters, they’ll accelerate southeastward into the regions mentioned above. Wind-driven damaging hail and localized hurricane-force wind gusts over 80 MPH will become a serious concern. We can’t rule out a tornado. High-precipitation supercells may produce very localized heavy rainfall. We’ll calm down late tonight once storms move off the Texas Gulf Coast or into Louisiana.

Friday through Sunday

Friday is expected to bring much-needed relief from the hot weather across Texas as a cold front continues its southward progress. Temperatures and dewpoint values will be lower north of the front, offering a respite from the intense early-summer heat. We anticipate this relief to extend further south into Saturday.

Heavy rain will return to Texas this weekend into early next week. One to three inches of rain, with localized amounts up to five inches, may fall in North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Flooding is going to be a concern on Sunday and Monday in Southeast Texas. One-half to one inch of rain is possible across the Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, and Hill Country through early next week.

Rain chances are set to increase on Saturday across the western half of Texas. The overall severe thunderstorm threat appears to be low. However, Sunday and Monday may bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of Texas. Again, the severe weather risk looks low, but heavy rainfall may become an issue, potentially leading to a flooding threat in East and Southeast Texas. A warmup is on the horizon starting Sunday and next week. Appreciate what may be the last cold front until this fall across the southern half of Texas.

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