Thunderstorms are back in Texas for the next two days, and with them will come beneficial rains for the luckier folks. Those on the unlucky side will miss out on the rain or have to deal with way too much (in the rain or severe weather department). Snow is possible in the western Texas Panhandle, with significant accumulations possible around Texline.
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Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will become more likely this afternoon and tonight across the western half of Texas. Individual storms will move north/northeast. Cold temperatures aloft will allow for hail production, though most hail will remain small. Stronger storms may produce pocket-change-size hail. Heavy rain and lightning are also anticipated with most activity.
The risk for a few severe storms will increase tonight into Friday morning across the Permian Basin and Concho Valley. Localized damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could occur. The risk for a few severe storms will spread east into the Hill Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, and North Texas Friday morning and Friday afternoon. Like tonight, the most intense storms could produce pocket-change size hail, localized damaging winds, and a non-zero tornado risk. If the atmosphere is more unstable than currently anticipated, the risk of a few tornadoes could be a bit higher. We’re monitoring trends and will post updates as needed.
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Several inches of rain is forecast to fall through Friday Night across the Panhandle, Northwest Texas, Texoma, and western Texoma with a localized flooding threat. One-half to two inches of rain may fall across the Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, Ark-La-Tex, Brazos Valley, and East Texas.
Rain chances Friday afternoon into Friday night will be highest across the eastern half of Texas. An arcing line of thunderstorms will move west to east, with individual storms ahead of the line moving north. Some storms may produce hail, heavy rain, and lightning. Rain chances will end from west to east tomorrow night into Saturday morning. The last rain should move into Louisiana and Arkansas by lunchtime on Saturday.
Saturday afternoon through Tuesday feature mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures, and little chance of rain. A few showers may lurk across the Texas Gulf Coast, but widespread precipitation is unlikely. Our next cold front will arrive on Wednesday next week, though precipitation chances don’t look promising with the latest data from Saturday afternoon through Wednesday.
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