FILE VIDEO: Gianluca Masi at the Virtual Telescope Project recorded this footage of asteroid 2023 BU as it zoomed past Earth on Jan. 26, 2023.
Scientists around the world are watching asteroid 2024 YR4 closely as NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) officials say the asteroid has a small chance of smacking into Earth in under a decade.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 using telescopes in Río Hurtado, Chile, part of the NASA-funded Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) facility.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 328 feet wide. According to the ESA, an asteroid of this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause “severe damage” to a local region.
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The discovery set off an automated asteroid warning system, which determined the object had a small chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in January 2025.
(Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut et al.)
The ESA’s Planetary Defense Office and NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies estimate the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit is 1.2%.
“Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%,” NASA wrote in a blog post.
As of Jan. 29, the asteroid is level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard scale.
“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in,” NASA said.
This is the second-highest alert for an asteroid since 2004’s asteroid Apophis initially caused a big scare, briefly warranting a level 4 on the Torino scale, before more observations confirmed the asteroid would safely pass Earth in 2029.
“It therefore meets all of the criteria necessary to activate the two UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG),” the ESA wrote.
These two international groups are coordinating more observations and will update their risk to Earth.
Watching 2024 YR4 before it disappears from view
Astronomers said the asteroid is moving away from Earth in an elongated orbit around the Sun, making it difficult to study its trajectory and orbit. According to the ESA, it will fade from Earth’s view over the next few months.
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in January 2025.
In the meantime, international astronomers will attempt to study the asteroid with the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile and other telescopes to gather more data and determine 2024 YR4’s risk to Earth.
ESA said the asteroid is likely to remain on the risk list until it is visible again in 2028.