Michael Brennan, the director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, spoke about the latest changes the NHC will implement regarding Potential Tropical Cyclones and the agency’s advisories to the public. He also covered the NHC’s review of forecasting storms in 2024.
MIAMI – A tropical weather product originally unveiled to the public in 2017 is receiving a major upgrade in 2025 that the National Hurricane Center believes will help communities prepare for impacts.
According to the agency, its meteorologists will now have the ability to issue forecasts for potential tropical cyclones up to 72 hours before impacts begin – an increase of 24 hours compared to the previous usage of the product.
The potential tropical cyclone designation allows the NHC and other governments to issue tropical weather watches and warnings when a disturbance isn’t quite at the strength of a tropical storm or hurricane but could reach that status within 36 hours.
Dr. Michael Brennan, director of the NHC, spoke with FOX Weather about the changes and said the advancements will help communities in the direct path of a cyclone.
“Back in 2017, we implemented what we call these potential tropical cyclone advisories that let us get watches and warnings out as much as 48 hours in advance of the onset of impacts and land areas for systems that weren’t yet even a depression or storm” said Brennan. “It’s been really successful, and we used it a lot. The best example from last year is Helene that formed down in the Caribbean and then made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane just a few days later.”
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Information on what a potential tropical cyclone is.
(FOX Forecast Center / FOX Weather)
In addition to the earlier PTC designations, Brennan also discussed the agency’s improvements in forecast intensifications, a key factor in determining who needs to evacuate.
The center used Helene as an example, which quickly developed in the Caribbean and impacted Florida as a major hurricane just a few days later in 2024.
The disturbed area of weather wasn’t even a bona fide cyclone, yet the NHC expected it to become a major hurricane within 72 hours – the first time forecasters had ever called for such rapid intensification.
“We’ve gotten a lot better at being able to anticipate rapid intensification over the last few years,” Brennan stated. “Our errors, when that happens, have been cut in half essentially. And really, and especially in the first 2 or 3 days, we’re now able to discern in many cases when a system that isn’t even a tropical depression yet can go on and rapidly intensify.”
In addition to experience, the director credited 2024’s forecast accuracy to storms being stronger and originating in the deep tropics – features that make the steering flow more predictable than sudden pop-up events along the coast.
This graphic shows the forecast track for Tropical Storm Helene.
(FOX Weather)
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Potential tropical cyclone product continues to be mired in confusion
Despite what amounts to mini-educational campaigns, confusion continues to surround the National Hurricane Center’s use of “potential tropical cyclone” forecasts, leaving many members of the public and some in the weather enterprise lost by the tropical terminology.
The term “potential tropical cyclone” was introduced as part of an effort to issue early warnings for developing systems, allowing for watches and warnings to be hoisted even before a system formally forms into a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane, but many take this as a system has formed, which is not the case.
When a PTC advisory package is released, many tropical weather watchers declare that a “cyclone has formed,” which is not the case – technically nothing has formed and there is no difference in the disturbed area of weather than before the advisory package was released.
Bryan Norcross, FOX Weather’s hurricane specialist, talked about the issue ahead of the season and believes the term “cyclone” is what causes the misunderstanding.
“As we’ve talked about, I don’t like the term potential tropical cyclone,” Norcross stated. “I like ‘potential tropical threat.’ And that’s kind of what we describe it as. But they just want to raise the flag a little bit sooner.”
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Another product that continuously invokes confusion is the NHC’s cone of uncertainty, which has been a point of contention in recent years.
Many people mistakenly focus solely on where the center of the hurricane is projected to make landfall, ignoring the broader area of impacts, which include storm surge, heavy rains, damaging winds and tornadoes.
In response to these concerns, the NHC has campaigned on emphasizing that impacts occur well outside of the cone of uncertainty, though many in the public continue to fixate on it.
“I think all of us as risk communicators, need to evolve the way that we talk to the public to be a hazard-first approach,” NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome previously told FOX Weather.
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(FOX Weather)