Severe storms will continue to pose a significant threat in Texas as we end the work week and head into the weekend. We’ve already experienced hail storms this morning in parts of the Concho Valley, and another round of intense supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. The most intense storms may produce tornadoes, destructive hail, hurricane-force wind gusts, and flooding rainfall. Texoma, North Texas, Central Texas, Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, the northern Brazos Valley, Concho Valley, Big Country, and Northwest Texas are in today’s risk zone, underscoring the potential severity of these storms.
A complicated forecast will unfold over the next two to three days. I had hoped yesterday’s storms would leave a more stabilized airmass for today and reduce thunderstorm chances. Overnight observational data shows my hopes were in vain. Unlike yesterday, today’s forecast for storm development will rely on existing outflow boundaries (left over from yesterday’s and this morning’s storms) along with the dryline. We won’t have a major source of lift overhead this afternoon. Surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s and 90s should be enough to bust through the cap this afternoon if that’s even a significant deterrent for some storms.
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Severe Storms This Afternoon into Tonight
With hailers underway this morning, we may see a quick transition from ongoing activity to new development this afternoon. Exactly where storms develop this afternoon will depend on where boundaries have set up, any temperature differential (rain-cooled airmasses), and subtle sources of lift. We anticipate significant severe weather potential once isolated to scattered supercell storms develop this afternoon. Like yesterday, ingredients will favor destructive hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, and at least a low threat of tornadoes.
Some data is concerning with stronger low-level wind shear this afternoon and evening compared to yesterday. If that stronger trend is verified, we may see a higher tornado risk with the most intense storms late this afternoon into this evening. That doesn’t mean all storms will produce tornadoes or softball-size hail, but we must remain vigilant. A lot can happen between this morning’s forecast and this afternoon. Truthfully, we’ll have to monitor real-time/near-term observational data to pinpoint specific corridors of concern. It will probably be rowdy if you have a storm in your area late this afternoon or this evening. Most folks won’t have storms, however. Like yesterday, we expect storms to weaken and decrease coverage after 9 to 10 PM. A few storms with a hail threat may continue into the late evening hours.
Storm Risk on Friday
Isolated severe storms are possible again Friday afternoon into Friday evening east of a surface dryline from Texoma and the Ark-La-Tex south into North Texas. Any storms that develop, and there may not be many, will likely be supercells with very large hail, localized damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Saturday’s Severe Storm Threat
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Saturday has the potential to feature a severe weather outbreak across Kansas, Oklahoma, south into Texoma, and northern portions of Texas. As it stands this morning, it looks like most of Saturday’s ‘lift’ will be near the Red River and points north. That would limit thunderstorm chances to north of Interstate 20/30 in North Texas and Northeast Texas. Any storms that develop near or south of the Red River Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening would likely be capable of producing all modes of severe weather. We’ll need to monitor trends in case thunderstorm chances expand farther south. It could be another nasty day for our neighbors north of the Red River.
Sunday through Early Next Week
Sunday looks like a much less active day in the thunderstorm department in Texas, offering a respite from the severe weather. However, it will feature a continuation of an early summer heatwave across Texas. It will be very hot and humid across Texas. A cool front will move south across the northern half of Texas on Monday (Memorial Day), bringing some relief from near-record-high temperatures. The southern half of Texas will continue to bake with afternoon highs in the triple digits. Sunday through Tuesday don’t appear active in the thunderstorm department. We may start trending toward a more active daily dryline-storm setup for the second half of next week, but for now, we can look forward to a calmer period.
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