March is a month full of unpredictability, whether it’s the weather or your chances of filling out a perfect March Madness bracket.
Millions of people take a shot at predicting the outcomes of the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments each year. But how likely is it to achieve that perfect bracket?
The odds of achieving a flawless bracket are staggeringly slim — about 1 in 9.2 quintillion (that’s 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 to be exact). If you know a thing or two about basketball, your chances improve to roughly 1 in 120.2 billion. However, how do those odds compare to the chances of encountering certain weather events? Let’s take a look:
Struck by lightning
Every year, the United States experiences approximately 40 million lightning strikes. However, the odds of being personally struck by lightning are much lower — about 1 in 15,300 throughout your lifetime. Of those who are hit, only about 10% suffer fatal injuries.
Hit by a tornado
Tornado risk varies significantly depending on where you live in the U.S. Tornadoes are more common in certain “hot spots” and are influenced by warm, humid air and weather systems moving through the area.
The odds of being caught in a tornado during any given year are about 1 in 12,000.
Remember, tornado tracking and surveying have improved over the years, but they weren’t as precise in the past, especially in rural or less-populated areas.
Getting hit by hail
While San Antonio may experience occasional hail, the odds of being struck by hail, particularly large hail, are relatively low.
Only 24 people in the U.S. are injured by hail each year, and fatalities are extremely rare — just four deaths since 2000, with the most recent occurring in 2008, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Flooding
Flooding is the second leading cause of weather-related deaths in the U.S., just behind heat. In areas like San Antonio, the likelihood of flooding depends on location and type.
For example, areas within the 100-year floodplain have a 1% annual chance of experiencing a flood. And with the ongoing drought in South Texas, water-related risks can be even more unpredictable.
So, how confident are you feeling about your March Madness bracket now? Let us know your thoughts in the comments!