Yes, it’s technically fall, but we’ll have to settle for the scented candles and leafy décor to put us in the autumnal mood.
It’s hot, and there’s nothing in the long-term forecast to suggest that’s going to change in the next couple of weeks.
MAIN TAKEAWAYS
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San Antonio usually experiences cooler weather by now
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No cold fronts expected through at least mid-October
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Staying rain free
WHAT’S NORMAL?
When looking at climatology for a certain area, it’s standard to grab data from the last 30 years. From 1993 to 2023, high temps in San Antonio dipped to or below 80 degrees for the first time in autumn by Sept. 17, and we typically experience the first morning at or below 60 degrees by Sept. 25. We’re already past those benchmarks, as we’ve yet to see a morning below 60 degrees or an afternoon cooler than 80 degrees at San Antonio International Airport.
The latest afternoon at or below 80 degrees occurred in 2015 on Oct. 24. And the latest mornings lows dipped to or below 60 degrees was in 2007 on Oct. 19.
What’s impressive (or depressing, depending on how you feel) is that we could break both of these late records, because there’s…
NO RELIEF IN SIGHT
In October, we typically see our first significant cold fronts of the season. Dense, cool air from Canada sinks south and spills across the United States. If the layer of air is cold enough, it’ll make it all the way to San Antonio and South Central Texas.
Looking at the latest forecast data, however, temperatures in Canada and northern United States are expected to remain warmer than average — by some 15 to 20 degrees — through at least the middle of October or even later. This means no cold fronts for us in San Antonio anytime soon.
STAYING DRY, TOO
October is San Antonio’s third rainiest month. On average the Alamo City receives 3.75 inches of rain at San Antonio International Airport. There may be a spotty shower or two, but without a cold front to kickstart rain, it’s looking to stay dry for us through at least mid- to late-October.
This is not good when you consider that drought still grips South Central Texas. In fact, Bexar County has been in some form of continual drought since Jan. 4, 2022 — that’s more than 1,000 days straight!
IT’LL FEEL COOL…EVENTUALLY
Even though fall-like weather is off to a very late start, the earth continues to revolve around the sun 😉. We will eventually see that first cold snap of the season, and — as Your Weather Authority — you can bet that we’ll give you enough of a heads up!