Invest 95L could become Tropical Storm Helene off Southeast US coast early this week

WILMINGTON, N.C. – An area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast will be closely watched for tropical or subtropical development over the next couple of days as it could become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a non-tropical low-pressure area formed late Saturday along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off the Southeast coast. As a result, the NHC tagged the system as Invest 95L, which allows the center to run specialized computer models on it to obtain additional information for its forecasts.

WHAT IS AN INVEST DURING HURRICANE SEASON?

As of Sunday morning, Invest 95L was already producing tropical-storm-force winds (40-plus mph) north of its center. The low-pressure system is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina.

According to the NHC, if the associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized, Invest 95L could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or two.

The NHC places the odds of development at 50-50, and if it does so, the system will be named Helene.

WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL STORM AND A SUBTROPICAL STORM?

“Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding and dangerous beach conditions to portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor the system’s progress,” the NHC warned in its tropical weather outlook.

Computer forecast models show a widespread swath of 2-5 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible mainly east of Interstate 95. This includes the coastal communities of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina and Wilmington and Morehead City in North Carolina. 

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has highlighted northeastern South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia for potential flooding on Monday.

A general 1-3 inches of rain is still expected in inland cities such as Raleigh and Charlotte in North Carolina and even Richmond in Virginia.

WATCH: HURRICANE ERNESTO’S SWELL CAUSES NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE TO COLLAPSE INTO OCEAN

“Residents along the Carolina coast should be ready for an extended period of gusty winds, and nasty weather, which will peak on Monday on the current schedule,” FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. “There is no indication at the current time that this system could turn into a hurricane, though we have seen that happen near the coast in the past.”

Rough seas to result in rip currents, beach erosion

All the motion in the ocean will lead to rough surf, an increased threat for rip currents and the potential for additional coastal erosion. 

The coastline around North Carolina’s Outer Banks and southeastern Virginia is highly susceptible to rough seas, as evidenced by swells created by Hurricane Ernesto that were over 1,000 miles away. 

WHEN IS THE TYPICAL LAST HURRICANE STRIKE ON THE US COAST?

Waves triggered by the once-Category 2 hurricane caused flooding along North Carolina Highway 12, the main thoroughfare through the islands. At least one abandoned home collapsed into the ocean.

Following the collapse, parts of Cape Hatteras National Seashore were off-limits to swimmers due to concerns about debris in the water.

So far, authorities have given no indications that the surf will outdo the swells of Ernesto or claim any more homes, but the local National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, has issued various advisories for beachgoers and boaters, warning about the rough conditions.