How Wednesday’s severe thunderstorm risks will differ from Iowa’s deadly severe weather outbreak

LITTLE ROCK – A slow-moving front boundary draped across a large swath of the country will lead to days of showers and thunderstorms, but unlike Tuesday’s deadly severe weather outbreak, future complexes of thunderstorms will not have the same atmospheric conditions to deal with.

Wednesday’s risk stretches for over 1,000 miles from Texas into the Northeast and includes cities such as Dallas, Little Rock, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

It is within this region where the greatest chance of seeing severe storms will exist, with the threats of hail and damaging winds.

The Storm Prediction Center’s greatest threat level is 3 out of 5, while Tuesday’s highest risk reached 4 out of 5.

“Dallas-Fort Worth, stretch it up right through Fort Smith, Arkansas and maybe around Oklahoma City too…It’s going to reload itself with more energy as it comes in from the south. I think the main threat is going to be more giant hail,” said FOX Weather meteorologist Bob Van Dillen.

While the tornado threat is not zero, it is significantly lower than what communities in the Midwest faced on Tuesday.

Forecasters will be paying close attention to where wind shifts occur, which could be an indication of a localized tornado risk.   

The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point was 15% on Tuesday, while Wednesday’s greatest chance is about 5%.

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Happening now

Showers and thunderstorms are still ongoing after Tuesday’s activity and are expected to re-erupt in the afternoon.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued by government forecasters when damaging storms consisting of large hail and winds around 58 mph are expected within the next few hours.

If ingredients are considered to be conducive for tornadoes, a Tornado Watch is issued by the SPC.

On Tuesday, more than half a dozen Tornado Watches were issued including a watch that was considered to be a “Particularly Dangerous Situation.”

PDS watches are issued when there is a high confidence of destructive thunderstorms.

Less than 5% of all watch boxes that are issued are labeled as a PDS.

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Outlook beyond Wednesday

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across a large part of the country, but there will be clusters that will be monitored for their chance of becoming severe.

One region will be along the I-95 corridor in the Northeast, which is where some thunderstorms could become strong with hail and damaging winds.

A second region across the Plains could produce all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes.

Cities included in this heightened threat zone include Dallas and Oklahoma City.

Unlike areas of the Northeast, flooding will be a concern for parts of Texas and the southern Plains as the regions have received several rounds of precipitation over the last week.

“So, we’re going to reload the atmosphere again for Thursday. Low pressure is going to form right across the upper part of the Plains states. That’s going to connect up with some energy coming in from the Rockies from the West. And you’re going to see more thunderstorms develop around that afternoon heating right around that dry line,” said Van Dillen.