The status of whether the world is being impacted by an El Nino or a La Nina is determined by water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. (NOAA)
As meteorological winter draws to a close, attention is turning to whether the La Niña pattern that emerged in late 2024, lived up to the classical characterization.
Traditionally, a La Niña winter produces warmer-than-average temperatures across the southern U.S., drier conditions in the West, and colder, stormier weather in the northern tier of the country.
But after a closer examination of the 2024-2025 winter, the climate pattern defied some of these typical patterns.
While temperatures in much of the country were close to average, regions from the Southwest to Texas experienced above-normal readings, with some of the warmest conditions in the nation.
Conversely, the mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Florida experienced colder-than-usual temperatures, which was particularly unusual given the La Niña state.
The Southeast experienced colder-than-average conditions compared to the Northeast, Midwest, and even the Pacific Northwest.
This cold air contributed to a rare event: snowfall that reached as far south as the Gulf Coast, including heavy amounts in cities such as New Orleans and Pensacola.
In late-January, these areas saw over 8 inches of snow – a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence.
Typically, El Niño events – the opposite of La Niña – lead to snowfall in the Southeast, but this year, cities in the Tennessee Valley and mid-Atlantic reported above-average snowfall, similar to years dominated by an El Niño.
However, the Upper Midwest and the I-95 corridor, which traditionally experience above-average snow during a La Niña winter, saw significant snow deficits for at least the second consecutive year.
New York City had a snowfall deficit of over 7″ by mid-February and Minneapolis was in a hole of more than a foot.
2025 percent of average snowfall
(FOX Weather)
In California, La Niña weather patterns typically produce dry conditions in the southern half of the state, contributing to above-average wildfire activity and flooding in the northern half – and that is exactly what happened during the winter.
In early January, wildfires around Los Angeles destroyed more than 12,000 structures, causing widespread devastation and numerous fatalities. The powerful Santa Ana winds exacerbated the situation, making it difficult for firefighters to contain the fires.
While this winter’s weather pattern was atypical due to the weak La Niña, climate change likely continues to alter the baseline conditions.
What was once typical for La Niña events may no longer apply as global warming continues to shift climate trends.
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Future demise of La Nina uncertain
Forecasters are uncertain about when this event will officially end, especially as the calendar year approaches what is known as the spring predictability barrier.
The time of year presents challenges for global climate models, which struggle to predict the strength and demise of El Niño and La Niña events.
Last year, for example, models predicted the quick end of the El Niño, but the pattern persisted well into spring and summer, leading to widespread global impacts.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model prediction
(IRI / FOX Weather)
As the La Niña pattern weakens, experts are closely monitoring what the future for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO.
Included in the realm of possibilities is everything from a potential double-dip La Niña, which could reemerge in late 2025 or 2026, or even an El Niño.
El Niño events are known to cause record global temperatures, coral bleaching and significant climate shifts, making them a significant event when they occur.
Currently, most models predict a neutral status for the upcoming months, but the uncertainty remains high due to the ongoing weak La Niña.
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Impacts associated with a La Nada event
Neutral events of the ENSO are not typically associated with severe weather outbreaks.
During neutral years, the U.S. tends to experience fewer tornadoes and hail events, with activity generally in line with historical averages.
In contrast, La Niña conditions are more likely to produce severe weather outbreaks, including higher tornado counts.
The proof of the status of the ENSO lies in the data, so to speak, with year’s early reports of tornadic activity.
According to data from the Storm Prediction Center, the number of tornado reports in 2025 is running about half where it should be for this time of the year.
2025 tornado count as of Feb. 13, 2025
(SPC / NOAA)
The year is still young, and the tornado deficit could easily be wiped out with an active severe weather outbreak, but without a significant event on the horizon, storm chasers will likely start wondering soon if 2025 is living up to previous norms.
Neutral conditions also create uncertainty for the upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic basin.
Neutral seasons run the gamut from being relatively benign, with just a few tropical cyclones, to record-breaking years, such as 2005, which saw 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes.
According to research conducted by experts at Florida State University, the impacts of hurricanes during neutral years are heightened for the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, similar to the effects produced by La Niña events.
The northeastern seaboard tends to experience reduced tropical cyclone activity, while the Caribbean faces impacts that are considered around average.
Across the continental U.S., neutral conditions are likely to bring warmer-than-usual air temperatures, particularly during the summer.
Historically, neutral summers rank among the top half of the warmest on record, with major heat waves affecting all three coastlines, while the nation’s heartland experiences more moderate air masses.