Groundhog Day is this Sunday, when we turn to a groundhog for indications that an early spring might be coming. However, Phil’s record isn’t great with accuracy only about 39% of the time.
As the country enters the final weeks of meteorological winter, very few signs of Old Man Winter exist across a large chunk of the nation, with many wondering if sights of the season will return.
According to the latest climate outlook from NOAA, the answer to that question is a bit complicated, as several atmospheric oscillations, which influence everything from moisture patterns to temperature shifts across the country, are expected to be constantly changing in February.
While the general expectation is for the second month of the year to be warmer than average, with near-normal precipitation in most areas, there are important regional caveats to monitor.
February pattern change
The best chances for warmer weather will be in the southern U.S., while the Pacific Northwest and communities along the US-Canadian border are more likely to see additional rounds of below-average readings.
In terms of precipitation, the Pacific Northwest and Midwest are expected to see above-average accumulations, while Texas and the Southeast are likely to experience drier-than-normal conditions.
WHERE ARE TORNADOES MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN FEBRUARY?
February temperature and precipitation outlook
With widespread temperatures in the 60s, 70s and even 80s in the forecast, February will start with record warmth, prompting questions about whether the cold air of winter will ever make a return.
Historically, February is the second-coldest month of meteorological winter and has been known to produce significant winter storms, but none are on the horizon in the short and medium term.
While new snowfall certainly remains a possibility, there are some clues to help predict where wintry precipitation is most likely to occur.
Temperature outlook for early February.
For instance, snowfall along the Gulf Coast – such as the rare event seen in places like New Orleans and Pensacola in January – will not repeat itself this year.
The event is considered a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence, and the storm track will remain too far north to bring enough Arctic air to the Gulf Coast. However, the region may still experience chilly temperatures, though nothing as extreme as what was seen in late January.
Similarly, the I-95 corridor in the Northeast, which has yet to see a significant snowstorm this winter, is unlikely to experience one in February. Temperature and moisture patterns will likely continue to fluctuate too significantly for any major snow events.
On the other hand, areas in the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, where colder air is expected and enough moisture will be in place, are more likely to see snowfall from incoming storm systems.
The Midwest could also see precipitation in the form of snow as storm systems clash with enough cold air.
Cities like Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit, as well as interior parts of the Northeast and New England, may experience plowable snowfall in the coming weeks.
Precipitation outlook for first days of February.
HOW ACCURATE ARE PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL’S GROUNDHOG DAY PREDICTIONS?
How will winter go down in the record books?
If winter were to end after the first two months of the 2024-25 season, it would largely be considered average when compared to over 100 years of records.
There are some notable exceptions, with Phoenix on track for its warmest winter on record, as well as several cities in California.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, communities in the mid-Atlantic and the Delmarva Peninsula are experiencing one of the coldest winters on record.
Temperature ranking for first two months of winter 2024-25.
(FOX Weather)
February will play a key role in shaping how the season is remembered.
A warm February would reinforce the trend of increasingly mild winters, while a cold month could leave a lasting impression of Arctic blasts and record-breaking cold.
Meteorological spring will officially begin on March 1 and run through the end of May.
According to NOAA’s latest seasonal outlook, most of the nation is expected to experience a warm spring, with above-average precipitation continuing around the Great Lakes.