FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down what early global computer models indicate for the upcoming tropical weather season and if there might be any surprises.
As hurricane forecasters begin to put together their first outlooks for the 2025 hurricane season, an important aspect that helps form a forecast are what are known as analog years.
Analog years refer to previous seasons that can be used for comparison to better understand what to expect during the upcoming tropical cyclone season.
While any year could potentially be an analog year, some years hold more weight due to the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO.
The ENSO is comprised of three statuses, which are El Niño, La Niña and neutral, which is often referred to as La Nada.
As a general rule of thumb, La Niña years tend to produce more tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin, while El Niño years typically lead to more subdued activity. However, this is not an absolute rule, as hurricane seasons can buck trends by being more active or less active than the ENSO status indicates they should be.
Entering the 2025 hurricane season, global climate models and forecasters expect the world to be in a neutral phase, having exited the current La Niña in the weeks ahead of the start of the core of the season.
A neutral phase of the ENSO is characterized by sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific ranging from -0.5 °C to 0.5 °C, meaning neither warm nor cool conditions dominate the region.
Looking back over data during the last four decades, years that started out exhibiting La Niña conditions but saw the ENSO transition into a neutral stage include 2018, 2012, 2001, 1986 and 1989 – this season’s potential analog years.
The season averages for these five years were 14.8 total storms, 8.6 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes, which are slightly above the modern-day season averages of 14 total storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
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So, based off of analog years and preseason information released by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, all signs point to either an average or slightly above-average season, with the possibility of 2025 becoming the slowest or busiest season on record being the least likely outcome.
Additional aspects forecasters can gain from analog years are the typical tracks of storm systems.
In the five recent analog seasons, the Caribbean and most of the Gulf were not hotbeds of activity, while the Atlantic resembled a busy highway, but there were notable exceptions.
The establishment of ridges of high pressure, troughs and other synoptic features play a significant role in determining where tropical systems will travel.
Colorado State University is expected to release its first 2025 outlook on Thursday, April 3rd, followed by several other organizations in the weeks and months leading up to the official start of the hurricane season.
Until then, here’s a look at five recent hurricane seasons that have displayed similar characteristics to what to look for in 2025.
Tropical cyclone tracks from 2018, 2012, 2001, 1986 and 1989.
(FOX Weather)
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2018 hurricane season
The costliest and most impactful neutral ENSO season on record occurred in 2018, with hurricanes such as Michael and Florence responsible for almost all the damage.
Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina in September and was a classic Cabo Verde system that originated off the coast of Africa and made the long journey across the Atlantic.
Hurricane Michael, on the other hand, developed off the Caribbean Gyre in October and quickly strengthened into a powerful Category 5 cyclone before impacting the Florida Panhandle.
Michael became the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the mainland since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
Elsewhere in the tropics during 2018, both the western Gulf and the Caribbean were relatively quiet, with the central Atlantic serving as a hot spot for activity.
There have been four Category 5 landfalls in the U.S. since the 1920s.
(FOX Weather)
2012 Hurricane Season
The busiest neutral ENSO year the FOX Forecast Center found from over the last four decades of data was 2012, when 19 storms formed, including Hurricane Sandy.
Hurricane Sandy developed in late October in the Caribbean before making its way up the U.S. eastern seaboard.
At the time, it became the second-costliest U.S. hurricane, just behind Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
The massive storm system wasn’t the only cyclone to strike the U.S. mainland that year, with Hurricane Isaac also impacting Louisiana.
Most of the tropical activity during the 2012 season occurred in the Atlantic, with fewer storms in the Gulf and Caribbean.
A list of the five costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.
(FOX Weather)
2001 Hurricane Season
The 2001 hurricane season was fairly active, with 15 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes, but the U.S. did not experience many impacts.
There were two hot spots for activity during the 2001 season: north of Bermuda and the western Caribbean Sea.
Forecasters had expected neutral conditions to prevail throughout the year, ahead of a developing El Niño event, which became dominant in 2002.
2001 tropical cyclone tracks
(NOAA)
1996 Hurricane Season
The 1996 season was marked by above-average activity, especially in the major hurricane category, and was a significant year for the Carolinas.
The season produced 13 named storms, nine hurricanes and six major cyclones, with notable hurricanes such as Bertha and Fran.
Interestingly, the initial outlooks from CSU expected the season to be much quieter than it ended up being.
After the season, CSU forecasters stated: “Factors favoring an active hurricane season include low values of Atlantic basin tropospheric vertical wind shear, cool ENSO conditions, a late-season change to lower surface pressure conditions, and a continuing long-term shift in Northern and Southern Atlantic sea surface temperature conditions.”
1996 tropical cyclone activity tracks
(FOX Weather)
1989 Hurricane Season
Tropical activity in 1989 was near average, with 11 total storms, seven hurricanes and two major hurricanes. However, the season produced a cyclone that will forever be embedded in the history books: Hurricane Hugo.
In September, Hurricane Hugo made landfall near Charleston, South Carolina, as a Category 4 cyclone with sustained winds of 140 mph.
At the time, Hurricane Hugo became the costliest cyclone on record for the U.S., a title only outdone three years later by Hurricane Andrew.
Hugo was one of three hurricanes that made landfall along the continental U.S. during 1989, with the others occurring in the west-central Gulf.
Hurricane Hugo track in September 1989
(NOAA)