Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday from parts of the mid-Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some of the tornadoes may be strong.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The nation’s severe weather outbreak enters its third day with a higher risk of strong, long-track tornadoes in densely populated areas.
This comes as several damaging twisters tore across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday, with Michigan being the hardest hit.
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On Wednesday, nearly 3 million people, including the city of Nashville, Tennessee, are included in a Level 4 out of 5 risk of severe weather. Another 18 million are included in a Level 3 out of 5 risk, including Memphis, Tennessee, and St. Louis, Missouri.
Tornadoes, very large to giant hail and destructive wind gusts are all possible. Some of the tornadoes may be EF-2 or stronger.
“Mayfield, Kentucky, is right in the middle of this. That is always a concern when you see those towns that have been hard hit by severe weather in the last three years or so,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. “It takes a lot of time to come back from an EF-4 tornado.”
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While the highest severe weather threat is centered over the areas covered by the Level 3 and Level 4 risks, the risk of severe storms also extends into portions of the East Coast. In total, nearly 150 million Americans are highlighted for at least some threat of severe weather on Wednesday.
The timing is going to be this afternoon. After lunchtime, a huge blossom of thunderstorm activity is likely between Missouri, southern Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee.
“That’s the get go,” Merwin added. “And unfortunately, these thunderstorms only become more widespread around 8 p.m. because then we have ignition in Arkansas and Texas, which is going to be a little bit lagged today. That’s not going to happen until around dinnertime.”
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Flash flooding is also a concern, especially in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Parts of Middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky are under a Level 3 out of 4 risk for flash flooding. Flood Watches also cover the same areas.
“We could see flash flooding just because these thunderstorms are going to produce so much rain in very urban areas like Nashville,” Merwin said. “Just be forewarned that street flooding can happen quickly.”
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Severe storms shift south and east on Thursday
On Thursday, the threat of severe storms will be highest across north-central and central portions of Texas during the afternoon and evening. This is where multiple supercells could produce very large hail, potentially up to the size of baseballs. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado are also possible.
A broader severe weather risk stretches from the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast into the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic, where large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main threats. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
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The exact timing of these storms is unclear, as most of this will depend on what happens on Wednesday, but the most likely time period for severe storms will be during the afternoon and into the evening, the FOX Forecast Center said.
Additionally, more flooding is likely, especially across eastern portions of Texas, where catastrophic flooding has already occurred. Between 2 and 3 inches of additional rain is expected in that region.