The National Hurricane Center is tracking two potential tropical disturbances, one in the Atlantic Ocean and one in the Gulf of Mexico, that could impact weather here in the U.S.
HOUSTON – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm this week, and while the system is expected to stay south of the U.S., fears are growing that tropical moisture being pulled north could lead to flash flooding along the Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi coasts.
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(FOX Weather)
The NHC said a large area of disturbed weather has formed over Central America, the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form from this system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next day or two, and a tropical depression or storm could develop by midweek as the system moves slowly to the west or west-northwest.
The NHC is giving the system a low chance of developing over the next two days and a medium chance of developing over the next week.
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Regardless of development, flooding could be a problem along the Gulf Coast
(FOX Weather)
“Regardless of development, the impacts are the same,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Kendall Smith said. “So, I don’t want you to get caught up in the naming of whatever this system becomes.”
That’s because flooding will be a major concern as the moisture is pulled into the region, leading to torrential rain and thunderstorms.
“Sunday, Monday, Tuesday – we have the potential for flash flooding,” Smith continued. “That’s the takeaway, is that it will be very heavy, tropical rain.”
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) placed areas of the Gulf Coast, including New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, in a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk as we close out the weekend and head into a new workweek.
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That flood threat grows on Tuesday as the system spins in the Gulf of Mexico to the south.
The WPC placed areas of Southeast Texas, including Houston, and southwestern Louisiana in a Level 3 out of 4 risk of flash flooding by Tuesday.
“Some areas, like Houston and over to Lake Charles (Louisiana), where we, quite frankly, do not need to see any more rain because the ground is already saturated,” Smith said.
The Houston area could pick up 8-12 inches of rain from the system, while areas of South Texas could pick up 3-5 inches of rain.
“And so, heads up, you need to prepare now,” Smith warned. “That’s the bottom line. Because it looks to intensify coverage as we head into Tuesday and all the way through Thursday.”
Competing with potential disturbance in southwestern Atlantic to become ‘Alberto’
The NHC is also watching the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas for tropical development. This disturbance is expected to dump heavy rain along parts of the Southeast coast later this week.
If the systems in the Gulf and southwestern Atlantic were both to develop into tropical storms, the first one to attain 40-mph winds would receive the name Alberto and the second one would be named Beryl.
(FOX Weather)
On average, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season forms around June 20, so we would be right on track with the average if Alberto were to develop later this week.