A not-on-the-bingo-card isolated storm brought a narrow swath of hail to parts of Parker, Tarrant, Johnson, and Ellis counties early this morning. That storm was caused by a small upper-level storm system that had just enough lift to initiate its development. Needless to say, this wasn’t expected – but with a reduction in weather balloon launches in the United States, we’re going to see more and more ‘surprises’ as we have a less current understanding of the upper-level air mass. Computer models are great, but they’re only as effective as the data they process. With less real-time data being ingested, the accuracy of weather model data declines.
For the next few days, isolated thunderstorms are likely in the eastern Panhandle, West-Central Texas, and Permian Basin late Wednesday afternoon and again late Thursday afternoon. If a storm develops, it will likely pose a risk of large hail. Activity will diminish around or shortly after sunset. Extreme wildfire danger is expected on Thursday across the western third of Texas.
Strong to severe storms are possible late Friday afternoon, Friday night, into Saturday morning in Northwest Texas, Big Country, and Texoma. Storms will continue into the weekend.
Thunderstorm chances will increase Friday afternoon in Northwest Texas, Big Country, Texoma, Concho Valley, and Permian Basin. This will mark the first of several rounds of storms expected across the eastern seventy-five percent of Texas into Friday night, Saturday, and Sunday. Some storms during this three-day timeframe may be severe, with risks of large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. Flooding may become more concerning in Texoma and North Texas this weekend due to multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain.
Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms with heavy rain on Saturday and Saturday Night in the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas.
Strong to severe storms will continue into Easter Sunday across North Texas, Central Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Heavy rain may result in localized flooding. Rain chances will end Sunday night.
Easter Sunday’s weather could impact outdoor plans in the eastern two-thirds of Texas. It’s not guaranteed to be raining where you are, but we do expect to see soggy and muddy soil conditions. Having indoor plans wouldn’t be a bad idea. Rain chances will decrease from west to east on Sunday evening, with Monday currently expected to be mostly dry across Texas. Next week will likely bring more storm chances to Texas.
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