As we’ve been reporting, the National Hurricane Center is calling for potential development in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. We are beginning to get a clearer picture of what may unfold and rain chances are in the forecast for San Antonio.
KEY POINTS
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A broad area of low pressure may try to organize early next week in the Gulf of Mexico; the National Hurricane Center is giving it a moderate chance (50%) of development
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All indications are that any system would move west into Mexico, staying south of Texas
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Despite not having any direct impacts on Texas, it will throw deep, tropical moisture north into parts of the state
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The question will be how far north this tropical moisture will reach
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As of now, isolated to scattered tropical downpours are forecast to develop on Wednesday and Thursday
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The highest rain chances will be south of I-10 and Highway 90 and closer to the coast
THE LATEST
A broad area of low pressure is forecast by computer models to take shape this weekend. As it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, it could organize. The National Hurricane Center now puts the odds of development at 50%. The latest indications are this system will move west/northwest towards Mexico. This would keep any direct impacts south of Texas. However, as it moves closer to the coast, deep, tropical moisture associated with the low will be thrown north into Texas, allowing for tropical-type downpours to develop, mainly on Wednesday and Thursday.
QUESTIONS
With a low yet to form, there will remain some uncertainties. One is how quickly organization would take place and how much real estate it would have to work with before interacting with land. The second big question has to do with its path. Should it move farther south, that could draw away some of the better moisture from our area, limiting rain chances. Obviously, a more northern path would bring better odds of rainfall. Also, a more developed, organized system would tend to limit rainfall to a smaller area. As of now, those south of Highway 90 and Interstate 10, along with those closest to the coast will have the best odds of seeing rain.
TROPICAL STORM NAMES FOR 2024
While there are NO indications, as of now, that this will be a named storm, we do know that it is forecast to be a busy season across the Atlantic Basin. Here is the list of names that will be used for tropical storms and hurricanes this season.
SAHARAN DUST
Every year we get plumes of dust from the Saharan Desert in Africa. It traverses the Atlantic, carried by upper-level winds. Our first round of “moderate” dust appears to arrive Monday of next week, ahead of this potential system. Often, the only impacts are hazy skies, but occasionally, if it’s thick enough, it can affect those with allergies.