Thunderstorm chances will return to various regions of Texas over the next several days, although no specific day seems to indicate ‘big-time scary tornadoes of doom’ at this point, which is rather nice to observe in late May. That’s not to say we won’t face the risk of strong to severe storms, but any day in May when I can say a tornado outbreak isn’t on the horizon is a good day. It’s going to be seasonably hot across Texas daily through Sunday. Then we’ll see a change as a decent cold front, by late-spring standards, brings our high temperatures down into the 70s and low 80s in the northern two-thirds of Texas early next week.
Thunderstorms are possible tonight in South Texas with a cluster of storms moving east out of Mexico. Some storms may produce gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain. The best chance for rain will be in the Rio Grande Plains, Rio Grande Valley, and South Texas late tonight into Thursday morning.
A boundary will move south into the Red River Valley Thursday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms will fire up along it during the afternoon hours and likely continue into hte evening. Storms will slowly move south, with the stronger storms capable of producing large hail and localized damaging wind gusts. Heavy rain is also a decent bet. The tornado risk is very low, but lightning will certainly put on a show.
We’ll likely see isolated to scattered storm chances on Friday and Saturday afternoons in the western sections of Texas, extending south into the Permian Basin. Those storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts before dissipating in the late evening hours as they slowly move east. As a cool front moves south on Sunday and Monday, we may see a better chance of showers and storms in several regions of Texas, but given how poorly weather models are performing in the medium-range, we’ll simply leave it at that and keep an eye on trends as we get closer.