While the Atlantic Basin moves into a tropical lull after Ernesto, the eastern Pacific has not one but four systems being tracked by the National Hurricane Center. On Sunday, Tropical Storm Gilma became a named storm about 580 miles southwest of Baja California, Mexico.
An active pattern for tropical cyclone formation in the Eastern and Central Pacific could send several named storms in the general direction of Hawaii, but it is too soon to determine what impacts these systems will have on the 50th state.
Tropical Storm Gilma is the only system that has earned a name so far, but there is a better than 50-50 chance that a second disturbance could become organized enough to develop into a tropical storm.
The closest feature to the island chain is a disturbance known as Invest 90/91E, which is currently over 1,000 miles south and east of Hawaii.
Forecast models show gradual development over the next several days, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form in the Eastern or Central Pacific as the system moves in a west or west-northwest direction.
Tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific.
(FOX Weather)
Based on the current trajectory, the disturbance will make its closest approach to the islands by late in the weekend or early next week; however, it is still too soon to determine what impact it will have on the weather.
Direct strikes on the archipelago are rare, but periods of increased waves and wind are more common with passing tropical cyclones.
Just over a year ago, a series of wind-driven wildfires were triggered by a significant pressure gradient, with a ridge of high pressure to the north of the islands and a major hurricane named Dora to the south.
The Category 4 hurricane passed more than 500 miles south of Honolulu, but its influence was strong enough to impact the weather pattern for thousands of miles – a setup that some forecasters believe could be a once-in-a-generation event.
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“While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance,” the National Hurricane Center said regarding Invest 90/91E.
Any impacts from Gilma, the tropical storm east of Invest 90/91E, would occur during the final week in August, but given how much time there is between now and the closest approach, the range of possible scenarios greatly varies.
Dry air around Hawaii on computer model forecast.
(FOX Weather)
Both the presence of dry air and cooler near-shore water temperatures play a significant role in the strength of tropical cyclones near the islands.
In nearly all cases, these features act as barriers to tropical cyclones approaching the islands, rapidly leading to their weakening or dissipation.
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Lack of data to give definitive forecast for impacts on Hawaii
Unlike the majority of tropical systems in the Atlantic, which are monitored by planes, drones and other methods, large parts of the Pacific lack many technologies to closely examine storm systems.
Data typically collected by hurricane hunters, satellites and other methods are fed into computer systems to provide forecast models with the most accurate picture of the atmosphere.
Without large amounts of data, there could be greater variability in forecast models – one day depicting a hurricane strike, only to be replaced with dry air in the next model run.
Blue colors indicate waters that are cooler than average while yellow and orange colors indicate temperatures that are above average
(NOAA)
Additionally, the naming process could be complicated by the disturbance’s location.
If the system quickly becomes organized, it would be given an Eastern Pacific name, such as Hector or Ileana.
A slower-developing system could allow the disturbance to cross the 140-degree west longitude marker and enter the Central Pacific.
The area of responsibility between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line (180 degrees) falls under the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), which uses an entirely different list of names.
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The first tropical cyclone that develops in 2024 in the Central Pacific will be given the name Hone.
NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, in coordination with the agency’s Climate Prediction Center, expects between one and four tropical cyclones to traverse the ocean, which is below the typical four to five tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.
The WMO voted to retire North Eastern Pacific hurricane names Dora and Otis. For the first time since 2014, the committee did not retire any Atlantic names.