Clinging La Nina ushers in spring temperature divide after last hurrah of winter, NOAA’s outlook shows

While weather patterns begin to shift a bit this spring, it’s still La Niña’s party for a while longer. 

Thursday’s release of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) temperature and precipitation outlooks for meteorological spring, which spans March, April and May, indicates that a persistent, albeit weak, La Niña will continue to bring impacts to the nation’s weather.

While below-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and east-central Pacific are expected to last through April, the CPC forecasts a strong likelihood (66%) of a shift to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions between March and May.

“This La Niña is predicted to be weak and relatively short-lived,” the CPC said in its latest discussion outlook. 

WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?

How will this affect temperature and precipitation patterns?

The CPC’s spring outlook shows a temperature divide, with cooler conditions in the Northwest and northern Plains countered by warmer temperatures in the South and East, while precipitation is expected to be above average in the Northwest, Great Lakes and parts of the East.

Here is a further breakdown.

Spring heat in South, chilly conditions in North

Below-average temperatures are expected from the northwestern U.S. to the northern Plains, as well as in southeastern and south-central Alaska.

Above-average temperatures are forecast for the southern tier of the U.S., much of the eastern U.S. and northern and western Alaska.

The highest probabilities of above-average temperatures are in parts of the Southwest, southern Texas, the Gulf Coast states, Florida and southern Georgia.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

Rainy Northwest, drier Southwest in spring outlook

Above-average precipitation is favored in the Northwest, the Great Lakes region, the interior Northeast, the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, parts of the Mississippi Valley and western and northern Alaska.

Below-average precipitation is expected in the Southwest, much of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains, the Gulf Coast and the southern coast of mainland Alaska.

HERE’S WHAT AN EL NINO CLIMATE PATTERN IS

Drought to expand in South with relief in Northwest

Dry and warm conditions have intensified drought across the southern U.S., notably in California and the Four Corners, while the Pacific Northwest experienced relief from heavy precipitation, according to the CPC’s seasonal drought outlook released Thursday.

While Hawaii is expected to see drought removal, and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands remain drought-free, low snow cover in southern Alaska could lead to slow drought development, the CPC said.