Happy Christmas Evening! Hello from 40,000 feet! Here’s the latest high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) forecast for Thursday.
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Tonight into Thursday morning will bring widespread cloud cover, drizzle, and even fog across the eastern two-thirds of Texas, extending into the Panhandle. Rain showers and storms will become more prevalent after sunrise in Northwest Texas and western North Texas. Near lunchtime, we anticipate a broken line of thunderstorms developing along an eastward-moving cool front/dryline near Interstate 35 in the Texoma region, North Texas, and Central Texas.
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Some storms may become severe, posing a risk of localized damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even the possibility of tornadoes. These storms will move east quickly throughout Thursday afternoon and early evening, affecting eastern North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle.
While not all storms will be severe, there is uncertainty regarding the northward extent of low-level destabilization, which will determine how far north the tornado threat could reach. Currently, it appears that the area along and south of Interstate 20 is the most likely zone for a few tornadic storms tomorrow afternoon. However, if we observe more destabilization than expected, the risk could extend north to the Red River in Northeast Texas. Conversely, if there is less destabilization, we might only see gusty winds, some hail, and heavy rain, with a reduced tornado threat.
I am particularly concerned about the possibility of tornadoes in East Texas on Thursday afternoon. We will need to monitor any individual storms ahead of the main line as well as those within the squall line itself. Wintertime severe weather threats don’t occur every year, but we do experience them every few years. Tomorrow is no exception, and while we had a violent tornado outbreak on December 26, 2015, tomorrow will not be like that day.
Could we face issues? Yes, but many factors need to align. Regardless, we’ll be watching the trends closely and providing frequent updates. Live coverage is set to begin around 12:30 PM Thursday, and we will guide you through it. You can follow our live coverage on our YouTube channels, Facebook, X, TikTok, Twitch, website, and mobile app. The threat of severe weather is expected to end between 8 and 9 PM, as storms exit Texas to the east or move out into the Gulf of Mexico.
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~ Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer