Christmas holiday season forecast: Warm signal dominates much of US

The coldest start to December in over a decade in the U.S. has many wondering if the wintry conditions will last through the holiday season and create a picture-perfect winter wonderland. But generally speaking, if you haven’t seen snow already, you likely won’t experience it before the holidays.

With just around two weeks before the arrival of holidays such as Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa, the forecast is looking rather complicated with at least one, if not more, pattern changes before the end of December.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS?

Climate models continue to advise that December will wind up overall warmer than average, meaning that the heat will be on during the second half of the month to make up for snowfall surpluses and temperature deficits accumulated during the month’s first days.

For most, computer models such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) show the arrival of the heat in earnest during the upcoming weekend, with temperatures reaching 5-15 degrees above average.

The warm temperatures will take some of the holiday crispness out of the air and lead to widespread snowmelt, but questions remain on how long the mercury will resemble October-like levels.

Will the warm-up extend into the week of Dec. 23, or will a sharp frontal boundary cause temperatures to plummet to seasonal norms?

Forecasters are more confident in the forecast than just a week ago. Confidence has increased from around just 40% to 60% among NOAA forecasters, but there is a long way to go in determining if there will be any precipitation to track and when wintry weather will return.

CHRISTMAS LAWN DECORATIONS ARE SOMETIMES NO MATCH FOR MOTHER NATURE

What does the first look at the holiday forecast show?

The combination of a neutral or La Niña status for the ENSO, a lack of polar vortex disruption, an absence of widespread snow coverage and the general changing climate patterns all point to a Christmas that won’t vary much from the norms.

Currently, there are no glaring signs that cities which typically don’t experience a white Christmas will see one this year, with the best chances remaining for those that usually have frozen precipitation.

For instance, New York City’s last snowy Christmas was in 2009, a year that set a modern record for the snowiest holiday season and one that will not likely be repeated in 2024.

Residents in Minneapolis or even Buffalo, who annually have the best chances of snow, will likely be better suited to see frozen precipitation, unlike more southern cities like Charlotte or Atlanta.

Those looking to celebrate the holidays in shorts may want to head to Florida or the Southwest, where temperatures will not challenge record lows, and in the Southwest, may even have a better chance of reaching above-average rather than experiencing below-normal readings on Dec. 25.  In fact, the entire western half of the nation is currently forecast to experience above-average temperatures.

Another well-below-average snow cover for Christmas Day?

During an average Christmas season, slightly more than a quarter of the country has snow on the ground, but whether temperatures are cold enough to allow for frozen precipitation depends on the larger patterns, which have become rather hit-and-miss during the last several years.

Sometimes the country can get lucky, and moisture can meet up with arctic air to produce a winter wonderland, such as what happened in 2009 when an estimated 63% was covered by snowfall but in 2023 only 17% saw measurable snow, making it one of the barest holidays on record.

Air mass patterns typically last from days to a few weeks, so expecting December to continue what the first weeks have already established is unrealistic as the country as a whole will likely experience several ups and downs before the holidays are here.

For those interested in more specific holiday weather impacts, keep an eye on forecasts issued by the FOX Forecast Center during the week of Dec. 16, when a team of FOX meteorologists will be able to pinpoint who might receive precipitation and what temperatures will be like for Christmas and beyond.