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(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Updated at 9:30 a.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024.
There is a strong consensus among the various computer forecast models that the tropical disturbance near Jamaica will organize into a tropical depression before the end of the week and pretty quickly develop into Tropical Storm Sara. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a high chance of developing into a depression or storm.
The steering currents across the Caribbean are very light, so eventually, likely-Sara is forecast to meander in the western Caribbean near Central America through the weekend. The system could track over Nicaragua or Honduras, which would change the calculation, but most likely it will stay over water where atmospheric conditions look conducive for the storm to strengthen – possibly into a hurricane.
This graphic shows the development chances for a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024.
(FOX Weather)
A blocking high pressure system is forecast to lodge over the Southeast U.S. at least through the weekend, keeping likely-Sara bottled up in the Caribbean. Next week, the pattern is forecast to shift.
A sharp dip in the jet stream and its accompanying cold front are forecast to reach Texas about a week from now. That strong jet stream dip could lift likely-Sara out of the Caribbean around the middle of next week and accelerate it northeast toward Florida or east across the northern Caribbean. All possibilities are on the table.
The stronger and farther north likely-Sara gets in the Caribbean, the better chance the jet stream can grab it and control its movement. We’ll watch closely the rest of this week to see how and where the storm develops if it does.
This satellite image provides a look at what could likely become Tropical Storm Sara in a few days.
Plausible scenarios indicate that likely-Sara COULD impact any part of the Florida Peninsula. Everyone from the Big Bend to South Florida and the Keys should stay up to date on the latest forecasts.
Nothing will happen fast, but the computer forecasts are in unusually high agreement on the threat, so attention is required. On the current schedule, likely-Sara would be in the vicinity of the Florida coast about Wednesday of next week.
As always, forecasts for systems that have yet to develop are subject to large errors and big changes, so don’t hang your hat on any one prediction. Many possibilities are on the table, but be thinking about what you would do if action were required next week.