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(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Updated Nov. 6, 2024, at 9:30 a.m.
Hurricane Rafael will pass over Cuba today and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael’s core looks likely to cross over the narrowest part of western Cuba, so no significant weakening is expected. The strongest part of the hurricane will track near Havana today, although the current computer forecasts show the worst conditions passing just west of the city.
Satellite imagery shows Hurricane Rafael approaching Cuba.
(NOAA)
Winds will increase in the Keys and south of Cape Canaveral on the east coast of the Florida Peninsula through the day due to a combination of the proximity of the hurricane and strong high pressure over the Atlantic. The peak winds come later today into the overnight.
Winds will be gusty but not as strong over Southwest Florida, even with the hurricane not far offshore. The air will flow over the peninsula, which will limit the strength of the winds reaching the populated areas along the Florida west coast.
The strongest winds outside of the core of the storm will occur in the outer bands that rotate over the Keys and Southwest Florida. There is a possibility of some tornadoes developing in those bands as well.
There is a strong consensus in the computer forecast models that Rafael will quickly turn to the left and head toward the central Gulf tomorrow. Winds will decrease and weather conditions will improve over Florida through the day.
Steering currents will drastically weaken so that the storm will meander around the central Gulf. There is an increasing consensus that Rafael will stroll toward Texas or Mexico and steadily weaken over the weekend. It still could turn north toward the northern Gulf Coast, but that’s looking less likely.
If the current trends in the computer forecasts continue, the next National Hurricane Center cone will shift left, reflecting the diminished possibility of any impact on the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Rafael will be plowing into a very dry atmosphere and strong upper-level headwinds Friday into the weekend. There is some chance that it will simply dissipate over the Gulf due to the hostile atmospheric conditions. If Rafael survives into next week, it might be because it dipped far enough south in the western Gulf to avoid the hostile winds. In that case, the Mexican coast could be threatened.
Hopefully, it’s obvious that this is not a Hurricane Helene or Milton scenario. Autumn weather has infiltrated the Gulf, which does not support tropical systems.
Nothing will happen fast, so we’ll keep an eye on it. But Rafael looks unlikely to be a significant problem for the U.S.
Tropical Disturbance in the Northern Caribbean has a low chance of developing.
(NOAA)
North of the Caribbean Islands, a disturbance is forecast to track toward Florida over the next few days. On the current schedule, it will arrive at the southern peninsula on Sunday or Monday. The atmospheric conditions do not favor dramatic development. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a low chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Whether it’s a depression or not, the computer forecasts show it affecting South Florida as a gusty moisture surge late in the weekend.