Tropical Storm Beryl has started to become better organized this afternoon. Located 385 miles southeast of Corpus Christi, Beryl has maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH, with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible tonight while the system recovers from its journey over the Yucatan Peninsula. However, conditions are expected to be more favorable for a more substantial intensification phase on Sunday and Monday morning.
Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday night and Monday. A Hurricane Warning is now in place from Baffin Bay to Sargent. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions begin late Sunday.
We anticipate Beryl regaining hurricane status by tomorrow night before making landfall on the Middle Texas Coast or Coastal Bend early Monday. Should intensification increase, Beryl may approach the coast with sustained winds of 90 to 100 MPH. The official forecast has Beryl making landfall a high-end category one hurricane Monday morning. We would encourage folks to be prepared for a category two hurricane, just in case. Landfall is expected to be a few hours earlier, likely Monday morning.
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There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
late Sunday night and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis Pass.
Residents in that area should follow any advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders.
Impacts will likely be felt well away from the landfall location, especially with coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rain, and a tornado threat. After landfall Monday morning, Beryl will begin turning north and eventually northeast. The forward rate of movement will not be particularly quick, so it will take a couple of days for the system to depart Texas. Of-course, the wind threat will decrease quickly after landfall. The heavy rain, fresh-water, and tornado threats will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.
River flooding is also possible.
The impacts from heavy rain will likely be across the eastern third of Texas, including hte Ark-La-Tex, East Texas, Piney Woods, Golden Triangle, Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and Northeast Texas. The worst impacts will be felt on the eastern side of the system – known as the dirty side of a hurricane.
Full Advisory on Beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
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…HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF TEXAS…
…HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND HEAVY
RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS…
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.9N 93.0W
ABOUT 385 MI…615 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
Baffin Bay northward to Sargent.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast
north of Sargent to High Island.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from North Entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore northward to San Luis Pass,
including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay.
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the Texas coast east of
High Island to Sabine Pass.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to Sargent
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of Sargent to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to San Luis
Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay and Matagorda Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 93.0 West. Beryl is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
should continue through Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest
is expected Sunday night, with a turn toward the north on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Texas
coast on Sunday and Sunday night and then make landfall on the
Texas coast on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to become a
hurricane again Sunday or Sunday night before it reaches the Texas
coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by early Monday. Winds are first expected to reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outdoor preparations
difficult or dangerous.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas
in Texas by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
by late Sunday or Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in Texas and northeastern Mexico late by Sunday or
Sunday night.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX…4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay…4-6 ft
Sargent, TX to San Luis Pass, TX…3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX…3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX…2-4
ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through midweek. This rainfall
will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which
may be locally considerable. Minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is also possible.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur along the Texas Coast Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next few
days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.