Asteroid 2024 YR4 is unlikely to hit Earth, but here’s what would happen if it did

A newly discovered asteroid being tracked by the global science community has a nearly 98% chance of zooming by Earth without touching our atmosphere. However, if Asteroid 2024 YR4 does hit Earth, most people won’t even know it happened. 

“This is not a get-worried kind of situation,” asteroid and comet expert Teddy Kareta told FOX Weather. 

Kareta, a postdoctoral associate at Lowell Observatory in Arizona, is among the scientists tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4 through ground-based and spacecraft data. 

In the weeks and months to come, the certainty of how big and how much risk this asteroid poses to Earth will come into focus. Right now, there is a 2.1% chance of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth. It still ranks a 3 out of 10 on the Torino scale, currently the greatest asteroid threat since Asteroid Apophis, which will now safely pass Earth in 2029. 

YR4 is estimated to be between 150 and 300 feet in diameter. But what we know about Asteroid 2024 YR4 is about to change.

Next month, observations from the world’s most powerful space telescope will hopefully provide more accurate estimates of its size. For about four hours in March, NASA‘s James Webb Space Telescope will use its Mid-InfaRed Instrument (MIRI) to study the thermal energy from Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is another data point in figuring out how big this asteroid is.

“You’re able to measure not just how warm they are, but how big they are at the same time. Because you can figure out kind of what temperature they’ve raised themselves up to. You get a sense of what kinds of properties their surface has. It’s another way to figure out what they’re made of,” Kareta said.

Thus far, most size estimates are based on the sunlight reflected by the asteroid.

“We want to understand how these objects are reflecting light, because that tells you something about what they’re made out of, what their surface looks like,” Kareta said. “The problem is that you need to look at them in a lot of different techniques to really narrow down exactly what kind of composition they have.”

NASA and European Space Agency planetary defense offices are providing daily updates on Asteroid 2024 YR4 as the scientific process unfolds in real time.

“If I was a member of the public, what I want to know is that there were smart people working hard on the problem, and they were telling us things as they find out,” Kareta said.

But what if Asteroid 2024 YR4 does hit Earth?

Objects around 150 feet wide have hit Earth before. If Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the planet it would be a regional impact event, not impacting the whole planet. People, even 100 miles away, might not even feel it.

“There’s a very, very small chance it hits the Earth at all,” Kareta said. “And then a lot of the places on Earth that it could hit could very well just end up in the Atlantic Ocean.”

Technology has improved enough to track space debris and asteroids down to the minute of entry. Last year, Kareta tracked a small asteroid discovered about four hours before it impacted Earth.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 will move out of Earth’s sight by May and will not return until 2028. Still, the threat assessment should be further along, and if the asteroid appears headed for Earth, there will be several years to make an action plan.

ASTEROID BREAKS UP OVER PHILIPPINES HOURS AFTER DETECTION SERVING AS REMINDER OF BIGGER THREATS TO EARTH

“We would be evacuating people out of the area. We’d be telling them ahead of time,” Kareta said.

However, until the size of the asteroid is more accurate, estimating when and where it might hit Earth will be difficult.

“If this thing lands in the middle of the ocean, you’re going to hear about it on the news, right? And everyone’s going to think it’s cool. But if this lands over a populated area, there’s going to be plans ahead of time. So it depends quite a bit,” Kareta said. 

By next month, with additional observations, the threat of Asteroid YR4 could be down to zero.