A strong cold front of arctic origins will move south across Texas tonight through Sunday afternoon. For most, we’re not expecting significant precipitation chances. The same will not be said of the airmass change, as this will indeed be a ‘crashy the cold front’ with substantial changes to our weather for the upcoming week. I’m putting this post together this evening to discuss the chances of thunderstorms late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.
There is a low risk of tornadoes in Far East Texas, the Golden Triangle, and Southeast Texas tomorrow from lunchtime through mid-afternoon.
Advertisements
Like the late December system, we’ll primarily watch Far East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle. Unlike previous systems, tomorrow’s cold front will be hauling fast – limiting the chances for more rowdy storms both spatially and time-wise. A thin line of thunderstorms may develop along the southeastward moving front tomorrow morning through mid-afternoon as it quickly moves across East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle.
No animation or a ? box – click the image to view full animation.
Most storms will struggle to intensify, and the severe weather threat will hopefully be more limited/isolated than in the final week of 2024. Strong wind gusts and a very low risk of a spinup tornado will be possible. However, we will have to watch for isolated storms, once again, ahead of the squall line. If those isolated storms can be organized, we may see them become severe, with the threat of localized damaging winds, pocket-change-size hail, and perhaps a tornado. This conditional risk could be highest in the Golden Triangle for Sunday afternoon’s early and middle part. The severe weather threat will end by late afternoon as the cold front pushes out into the Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana. In its wake, winter-like temperatures will invade Texas for much of the upcoming week.
Winter Airmass for Texas This Week
The Rio Grande Valley is the only region not expecting a freeze at least one night this week. The rest of Texas will experience at least one if not multiple, nights with sub-freezing temperatures. The northern seventy-five percent of Texas will likely see nighttime temperatures in the teens and twenties this week. High temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will struggle to climb out of the thirties across the northern half of Texas. It will be cold and winter-like, but this isn’t a repeat of 2011 or 2021. We’re not dealing with record-cold temperatures, and most locations will climb above freezing during the afternoon hours (except the Panhandle on Monday).
The threat of Snow/Ice/Rain Increasing Thursday & Friday
We are monitoring the potential for a winter weather event (precipitation with a cold airmass still in place) on Thursday and Friday. As of today’s data, the northwestern half of Texas may have to deal with frozen precipitation – if precipitation occurs at all. That’s far from certain, but it is becoming increasingly possible. It is too soon to talk about accumulations and impacts, aside from ‘they are possible if we have a system later this week.’ That being said, both are possible if trends continue to support the chance of a late-week storm system with our cold airmass still in place.