Yesterday began a series of active weather days across Texas. We anticipate further impacts this weekend and Monday, including heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. After a few quiet days, another upper-level storm system will arrive around Friday.
Thunderstorms have been ongoing overnight across the Texas Panhandle in eastern New Mexico. Locally heavy rain has brought welcome relief from a horrifically dry October. These rain chances will spread into West Texas, Permian Basin, Northwest Texas, and Big Country this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become severe later this afternoon and tonight. The most intense storms could produce large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes.
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We anticipate upscale growth into a line or complex of storms that will move northeast into Northwest Texas, Texoma, and Oklahoma tonight. Additional storms may develop overnight and into Sunday morning across West Texas, Permian Basin, Big Country, Northwest Texas, and Texoma – with hail, heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and brief tornadoes. Not all storms will produce severe weather, though we expect a good gully washer.
Wet Weather continues Sunday
As we progress into Sunday and Sunday Night, thunderstorm chances will expand further into the Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas, and East Texas. Like today, we expect multiple rounds of storms, with many growing upscale into line segments or small clusters. Activity will tend to move east/northeast.
Some storms may be severe, with a risk of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Given the relatively messy storm mode, it will be difficult to determine any corridors of higher severe weather potential with much lead time. Hopefully, we can enjoy a bunch of rain without too much rowdy mischief, but with plenty of wind shear, we’ll need to watch storms for signs of low-level rotation.
Monday could be a busy weather day for Texas
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Monday has the potential to be problematic. A strongish cold front will move from west to east across much of Texas late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The cold front will provide ‘lift’ and allow scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop by Monday afternoon near Interstate 35 from Texoma, North Texas, into Central Texas.
Environmental conditions may favor severe thunderstorms with a risk of damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. The line of storms will move across the eastern third to the eastern half of Texas Monday afternoon, Monday night, and Tuesday morning before exiting Texas to the east. The current timing projections suggest that much of Tuesday will feature low-impact weather hazards across Texas – with gusty northwest winds and much cooler temperatures.
Calmer Weather for Election Day
Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be less active, though we may have some chances for light showers. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday could become active with the arrival of another upper-level storm system and cold front. We’ll deal with the late-week storm threat after we’re done with our current plate.
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