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PORT HEDLAND, Australia – Residents in Western Australia are closely watching Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which rapidly intensified on Wednesday and is expected to potentially reach Category 5 strength before making landfall.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reported that the Category 4 cyclone was on a trajectory to impact the Pilbara region, with Port Hedland, a major mining and resource hub, directly in its path.
Zelia’s development resembled that of a rapidly strengthening hurricane, with lightning surrounding a pinhole eye.
Upper-level winds were considered to be conducive for development, and water temperatures were estimated to be a blistering 86-88 degrees F.
Additionally, the FOX Forecast Center said the position of the jet stream was helping to ventilate the cyclone before its arrival during the late workweek.
Forecasters predicted that sustained wind speeds could reach at least 180 mph before the cyclone makes landfall, with catastrophic damage likely in the storm’s eyewall.
In addition to damaging winds, severe flooding is also a major concern for the region, as tropical moisture is expected to persist for days in the western part of the country.
Tropical Cyclone Zelia animation
(FOX Weather)
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Port Hedland, located about 1,000 miles north of Perth, is among one of the communities most at risk, and preparations were underway with flight disruptions and school closures ahead of the worst of the weather.
Some parts of the region are still recovering from Tropical Cyclone Ilsa, a Category 5 storm that hit western areas in 2023.
Australia’s cyclone season runs from November to April, which is during the Southern Hemisphere’s spring and summer months.
According to Australia’s climate services, the country typically tracks around a dozen cyclones annually, with four or five that make a direct landfall.
Cyclone activity tends to spike during La Niña climate events, with twice as many cyclones impacting the region when compared to El Niño years.
Tropical Cyclone Zelia forecast track
(Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology / FOX Weather)
AUSTRALIA DECLARES EL NINO OVER IN TROPICAL PACIFIC
While there is no established link between Australia’s cyclone activity and the Atlantic hurricane season, both regions’ cyclone patterns are influenced by the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is often referred to as the ENSO.
The state of the ENSO is expected to remain either in a weak La Niña or neutral status through most of the remaining months of the year, which will impact cyclone activity elsewhere around the globe when development begins to percolate in around three to six months.
A La Nina tends to bring drier air over South America.
(NOAA)