Chances increase of an asteroid impacting Earth in 2032 – but there is no need for panic

An asteroid that struck Earth 66 million years triggered a megatsunami that wiped many of the dinosaurs

Space agencies around the world are tracking an asteroid that could potentially cause a devastating impact on Earth, but experts say the event is not cause for alarm.

Astronomers have identified the asteroid as “2024 YR4” and, in December, determined that it follows an elongated orbit around the Sun.

NASA and the European Space Agency initially assessed the nearly football-field-sized object as having a 1.6% chance of colliding with Earth. However, internet sleuths have since discovered that this probability has risen to 1.9% in recent days.

According to NASA, the likelihood of a collision will fluctuate as more observations are conducted, and the most recent calculations are factored in.

While the apparent increase in collision probability for December 2032 may seem concerning, experts stress that the risk remains very low, as there is over a 98% chance that the collection of rocks and metals will safely pass by Earth.

NEWLY DISCOVERED ASTEROID WILL LIKELY MISS EARTH BUT IMPACT DURING 2032 HOLIDAY’S CAN’T BE RULED OUT

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in January 2025. 

(Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut et al.)

“Because orbits stemming from very limited observation sets are more uncertain it is more likely that such orbits will ‘permit’ future impacts. However, such early predictions can often be ruled out as we incorporate more observations and reduce the uncertainties in the object’s orbit. Most often, the threat associated with a specific object will decrease as additional observations become available,” NASA stated on its website.

The space agency also noted that the probability of a collision could eventually drop to zero as more information about the asteroid’s trajectory is collected.

This is certainly not the kind of news that doomsday believers want to hear, as it would mean social media users would need to dream up a new catastrophic scenario to rally behind.

Space experts also caution that due to the asteroid’s trajectory and its proximity to the Sun, it may become impossible to track using telescopes for several years. As a result, any significant update on its trajectory may not occur until 2028.

SEE THE OBJECTS HUMANS LEFT BEHIND ON THE MOON

The asteroid has been given a Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is a system used to communicate the potential dangers posed by near-Earth objects.

At Level 3, the scale suggests: “A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”

The alert level is the second-highest recorded since 2004, when the asteroid Apophis reached a Level 4, but additional observations later determined that its trajectory would cause it to pass Earth at a safe distance of around 20,000 miles in 2029.