An uptick in thunderstorm intensity has been noted this evening across portions of North Texas, including the D/FW Metroplex. This well-anticipated increase in intensity will continue over the next several hours as a band of thunderstorms develops from the Hill Country, part of central Texas, moving northeast across the D/FW Metroplex into eastern Texoma.
These storms may behave like a train on a track, training over the same areas. The result is an increasing concern for significant rain accumulations of three to seven inches overnight, leading to flash flooding. Be mindful of that potential, as some roads may be flooded during the morning commute. Some storms will also produce excessive amounts of cloud-to-ground lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. As we get past midnight and closer to sunrise Thursday, a line of storms will begin moving east across North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, and South-Central Texas. Some storms may become severe with localized damaging wind gusts, penny-sized hail, and a non-zero risk of a tornado.
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These storms will continue moving from west to east across the eastern half of Texas on Thursday with the same severe weather hazards. Most storms will behave, but there is a chance some may get a bit rowdy. Otherwise, we are monitoring a conditional threat for scattered severe storms Thursday afternoon in the eastern Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, Golden Triangle, and the Piney Woods of East Texas.
If we see enough destabilization, a few discrete storms may form ahead of the squall line, or storms within the squall line may intensify. Should this conditional risk occur, damaging winds and a few tornadoes would be possible. Storms will exit Texas to the east by dinner time Thursday, ending our risk of unruly storms and bringing an extended period of beautiful, warm weather.
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