As we dive into another winter storm here in Texas, a few surprises are making themselves known! This afternoon, snow squalls brought some brief blizzard-like conditions to the Texas Panhandle, creating quite the adventure for travelers. While those snow squalls up north have calmed down, we can now turn our attention to the evolving weather situation unfolding this evening across southern Texas.
Expect to see more freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and sleet making their way into South-Central Texas and the beautiful Hill Country this evening. There’s quite a bit of dry air hanging out in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and it’s going to take a little while to get it moist enough. In the meantime, most of the precipitation we’re observing across Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and the Hill Country will evaporate before it even touches the ground. If you’re keeping an eye on the radar this afternoon, you might notice a lot of precipitation falling, but not making it to the surface!
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However, as the atmosphere gets more moisture this evening, that will change. It won’t take much freezing precipitation to start making elevated surfaces like bridges, overpasses, and highway ramps a bit icy. Untreated roads in some areas could also start to get slick late this evening. We’re anticipating an increase in precipitation across South Texas, the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle in Far Southeast Texas tonight. Many of these regions will see surface temperatures drop below freezing by sunrise, which will pave the way for winter precipitation. We might kick things off with light freezing rain and sleet, transitioning mostly to sleet, with a possibility of wet snow in Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle around sunrise Tuesday and lasting until around lunchtime when the system wraps up.
Predicting accumulation is a bit tricky today because of that lingering dry air and the fact this system tends to lean towards sleet more than snow. Still, we expect travel impacts in many of the regions mentioned. Even light accumulations of ice, sleet, and snow can cause issues since surface temperatures are likely to hover near or below freezing through Wednesday morning. Any melting we see on Tuesday afternoon could transform into ice as temperatures drop into the teens and twenties by Wednesday morning.
We might see the heaviest snow accumulations, exceeding three inches, across Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, and the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. These higher totals will be found within thin bands of heavier precipitation. Elsewhere, lighter accumulations from a dusting to two inches of sleet and snow can be expected. Parts of South Texas and the Rio Grande Plains might even see up to a tenth of an inch of ice. Not everyone will get a significant amount from this storm, and the dry air has pushed a bit farther south, which could keep Austin safe from a major winter storm. But fingers crossed for tonight, as even a small amount of freezing rain or ice could create notable challenges.
The winter storm is expected to depart Texas late Tuesday morning, around lunchtime. Melting might kick off Tuesday afternoon, but any road improvements are likely to be temporary. Once the sun sets, temperatures are set to drop into the teens and twenties, causing any remaining water, slush, or snow to freeze into ice by mid-morning Wednesday. We can look forward to a warming trend on Wednesday that should help clear away winter weather accumulations fairly quickly. Just keep an eye out for some spotty ice on the roads again Wednesday night. The silver lining is that we’re expected to ride the temperature roller-coaster, with 60s making a comeback statewide this weekend!