Thunderstorm chances are on the rise across western parts of Texas today, and it goes downhill Thursday through Friday morning for the eastern half of Texas – plus the north, too. This afternoon’s strongest storms may produce damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain. Thursday’s storms could be more rambunctious with a risk of very large hail up to the size of baseballs, localized damaging wind gusts, flooding rainfall, and perhaps a low tornado risk.
This evening’s storms in the Panhandle and West Texas will grow into a cluster that moves northeast into Oklahoma. Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain are possible. Tomorrow’s storms may begin in the late morning hours across the northern half of Texas. These morning and early afternoon storms may produce hail and heavy rain. Stronger storms are possible early to mid-afternoon in the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas.
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These initial superceulluar storms may pose a risk of a tornado, damaging winds, and very large hail. This afternoon risk is more conditional in the Hill Country, Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. However, we expect supercells in the Permian Basin and Concho Valley by late Thursday afternoon. Those storms will move east/southeast toward the regions mentioned above, so even if afternoon storms don’t develop, activity will move in from the west.
We’ll also need to watch the rain and storms across the northern half of Texas as they may propagate farther south with time. Thursday night into Friday morning will be stormy across the eastern third to the eastern half of Texas. Heavy rainfall may result in new flooding across portions of North Texas, Central Texas, the Ark-La-Tex, East Texas, Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas. Since saturated soils and rivers are in minor to major flood stages, it will not take much rain to cause new flooding issues. Please be mindful that some roads may be flooded after a downpour.
Weekend Warmup
We’ll start drying out (again) Friday afternoon and should remain mostly dry across Texas through Saturday and Sunday. It’ll be pretty warm over the weekend as early summer establishes itself. Next week looks to feature a more active weather pattern with a return of storm chances, but we’ll deal with that after we get past our current system.
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